Holy Avalanche

[washington6288]

I'm looking at the Tuck's zoom for the first time in over a week and there are some major crowns in the bowl. Widespread avalanches. Sorry, I can't post the photo, its got some sort of java protection.

Edit: All the crowns are below the rocks with still plenty of snow to slide above. Also, the lunch rocks look more like lunch rock.

[davidhowland14]

clouds just cleared enough to get a look at the mountain from the cams. wow. it looks like febraury up there, amazing what one late-april storm will do.

[boardman]

clouds just cleared enough to get a look at the mountain from the cams. wow. it looks like febraury up there, amazing what one late-april storm will do.

yeah, one, seven-day*april storm!

* they had measurable snowfall for seven straight days up there.

[RR]

I'm looking at the Tuck's zoom for the first time in over a week and there are some major crowns in the bowl. Widespread avalanches. Sorry, I can't post the photo, its got some sort of java protection.

Edit: All the crowns are below the rocks with still plenty of snow to slide above. Also, the lunch rocks look more like lunch rock.You mean this one:
http://www.techsourceconsultants.com/coppermine/albums/userpics/10040/normal_MajorCrownTux.JPG

[washington6288]

Yeah, that's the one. It looked really impressive this morning when the shadows were just right. I could pick out a crown circling all the way around the bowl, not just the one visible on the left.

The rangers talked about this, but they seemed to downplay the current avalanche danger. Maybe everything slid. They did mention some of the longest slide paths of the season.

[M@]

Prob. a good sized derbies field, dangerous for the sledders.

M@

[RR]

Yeah, that's the one. It looked really impressive this morning when the shadows were just right. I could pick out a crown circling all the way around the bowl, not just the one visible on the left...If that's the case, the lower bowl area is 8-15 feet deeper than before the debris field arrived!

[boardman]

Think the Rangers said everything slid except Sluice and Chute.

[surfsnowywaves]

Factor in snow tonight.

This weekend is going to be dangerous. I know there's a UVM Outing Club trip heading up there, I hope they make the correct decision.

[tig]

cant seem to find ot on the MWO site, and the tuckerman.org site dosent have new pics..

[washington6288]

cant seem to find ot on the MWO site, and the tuckerman.org site dosent have new pics..

Its premium content for members only. Sorry.

[mtngoat]

What are the chances of snow being stable at all for fri and or Sat.? I know it going to snow how much???

[boardman]

Here's the same pic that RR posted, only more recent, so the sun offers a really nice shadow for contrast. That's quite a crown.

http://i130.photobucket.com/albums/p269/climbnboard/avy.jpg

[washington6288]

Thanks, I was just about to post the same image, but boardman beat me to it.

Notice the older crown directly under the biggest cliffs in the center of the headwall.

[PWDR8S]

I would think these conditions will be THE most unstable we've had all year. Although the slides this week helped, only way to find out is wait and see. More precip is due Sat-Sun.

[boardman]

yep. Avy danger came down after the slide; Rangers rated it Moderate to Low. But new snow tonight into tomorrow could unsettle it again, especially if it's the heavy, wet stuff. But Friday and Saturday look pretty nice weather-wise, so maybe it'll consolidate a bit? Doubtful, I know. Sunday could see a LOT of snow if current projections pan out . . . I might have to hit the Doublehead or something like that on Sunday.

[tig]

that is to show contrast in such a far pic!

The sunday-mon event will be a heavy snow noreaster, with strong wrap-arounds after, so one might expect a big avy cycle tuesday, besides the next one friday.

Saturday and wednesday might be the best windows? Depends on the loading...

With all this activity, Ullr just saved May, me thinks. And pinnacle may be doable 2 weekends from now, with the NAO ensemble being low atleast till the 23rd, and the AO going -ive too. Me likey this April.

[mtngoat]

What about conditions in GOS...You think there will be some doable terrain in The Gulf?

[pulverschwein]

What about conditions in GOS...You think there will be some doable terrain in The Gulf?
In a word, no. If Tucks is unstable, GOS will likely be the same or even moreso. Plus GOS doesn't have the advantage of regular observations and reportage like you get from Tucks. A word of advice: if they say no go in Tucks, do not go into the gullies.

[washington6288]

http://img440.imageshack.us/img440/6616/avyps4.jpg

The entire area bound by my crappy red drawing looks like avalanche debris. Not that they happened all at the same time, but sometime during the cycle. You can see to the right of lunch rocks the snow is still smoother and more shiny. This is the area described by the rangers that hasn't yet slid.

[footlong]

So...maybe this global warming isn't warming but is just shifting winter by a month or too....January acted more like Nov/Dec and now April (spring) seem more like Feb/Mar....

Or maybe it's just Ullr laughing at all of us for being so full of ourselves to think that we could actually influence that which is under his power..

[mtngoat]

Should I even consider going on Fri & Sat?? Or will it be hopeless to think I will get any turns in..? Leaving for Mexico on Sunday like to end this season well but not all my seasons.

[boardman]

Should I even consider going on Fri & Sat?? Or will it be hopeless to think I will get any turns in..? Leaving for Mexico on Sunday like to end this season well but not all my seasons.

Depends on what you're looking for. If you're hell bent for 45-50 degree gnar, then you probably shouldn't bother. But if you're looking to experience the Whites in all their winter splendor, and have a super-fun, old-school CCC-cut ski run or two, then the Gulf of Slides trail is well worth the visit, as is the Sherbie. Then there's the Doublehead, Chocorua, and other BC trails where avy danger won't be so much of an issue. And hey, you can always do one of the BC trails in the morning, then spend the afternoon at Wildcat, where the conditions should be pretty sweet as well. There's lots to be done!

[mtngoat]

Hell bent on gnar would be nice but I do not want to die. Can you give me an idea on where(maps) of other backcountry areas. Are they accessable from Hermit lake. Is it possible the bowl and ravine will be doable Sat. am.? Trying to decide to go up or ride a lift at Jay or the bush after this storm.

[footlong]

Should I even consider going on Fri & Sat?? Or will it be hopeless to think I will get any turns in..? Leaving for Mexico on Sunday like to end this season well but not all my seasons.

How long you gonna be in Mexico? The way things are looking, May will be a great time at TUX...:D

[boardman]

I'm guessing Sat a.m. in the Ravine is going to be highly doubtful, especially if they get the foot of snow that's possible with this storm. It's supposed to arrive later Thursday than originally forecast, and will snow into Friday. 24 hours of settling from that much snow, on top of the graupel layer that is still likely lurking in those areas that haven't slid yet, probably isn't going to resolve the avy danger. GOS trail is accessed from Pinkham Notch parking lot. Other BC options to be had in and around Jackson. A quick Google search will net you good beta for the Doublehead.

[mtngoat]

I'll be back around the third week of May...little worried this lean year will be gone by then...but, it just keeps coming. Anyway who can give me options to ski if the ravine is not avy savvy.

[riverc0il]

I find it interesting that after seeing pictures like those posted above and knowing a foot of fresh is slamming into the region on Friday, people are still considering skiing the bowl or GOS. If you go, go with the expectation of only skiing the ski trails proper, this is not your typical April season but full on Winter conditions. Full avi gear and knowledge would be strongly advised for any ill-advised travel in the ravines following this storm.

[davidhowland14]

heck, hike up anyways and lap the sherbie and then head to wildcat and hit the glades there.

[davidhowland14]

http://img440.imageshack.us/img440/6616/avyps4.jpg

The entire area bound by my crappy red drawing looks like avalanche debris. Not that they happened all at the same time, but sometime during the cycle. You can see to the right of lunch rocks the snow is still smoother and more shiny. This is the area described by the rangers that hasn't yet slid.

i hadn't realized just how much new snow there was. that's insane. can't really tell without the new zoom cam.

[tig]

Winds are on friday..if winds are strong, and in the correct directions, there will be a cycle and things might clean. I remember one of the feb-march storms cleaning in no more than a day (surprisingly). But I wouldnt go up anywhere without talking to the rangers on Sat, and even so I'd be prepared to hot the Sherbie, which will prolly be stellar.

Now I curious what effect the snow density will play. If denser, it might cause some weight related initial slides but the wind isnt going to pick it up as efficiently. Thus a more moisture content snow might lead to a longer avy cycle?

I'm guessing Sat a.m. in the Ravine is going to be highly doubtful, especially if they get the foot of snow that's possible with this storm. It's supposed to arrive later Thursday than originally forecast, and will snow into Friday. 24 hours of settling from that much snow, on top of the graupel layer that is still likely lurking in those areas that haven't slid yet, probably isn't going to resolve the avy danger. GOS trail is accessed from Pinkham Notch parking lot. Other BC options to be had in and around Jackson. A quick Google search will net you good beta for the Doublehead.

[washington6288]

New Tucks photos up on Tuckerman.org:

http://www.tuckerman.org/photos/tucks/

Calling it a five foot crown. I knew that thing was big.

http://www.tuckerman.org/photos/tucks/images/2007-04-11%20Walking%20across%20the%20debris.JPG

[pulverschwein]

Jeez o man! Looky how far that debris ran out - you must be jiving me!

[davidhowland14]

that must have been one massive slide. all of the bushes at the bottom of the ravine are covered, too. (and one or two more knocked over trees) why the green tint, i wonder. does a 5foot crown mean 5 feet of new snow on top of the old layer?

[PWDR8S]

that must have been one massive slide. all of the bushes at the bottom of the ravine are covered, too. (and one or two more knocked over trees) why the green tint, i wonder. does a 5foot crown mean 5 feet of new snow on top of the old layer?

At least that much. Given the distance viewing the crown, I would say the crown is more than 5' high.

[boardman]

yikes, that's some runout!

Can't wait to see what it looks like after this snowstorm . . .

[Seeker]

:eek:


I guess not going there this past weekend was a good call then.

[Rider.Steve]

Left Gully looks PHAT, and the Lip looks SWEET! The next month is looking UP!

[footlong]

Left Gully looks PHAT, and the Lip looks SWEET! The next month is looking UP!

I wonder a: how sick will it be after today's and monday's storms
b: if that 10 forecast for rain showers all next week will have any impact on reversing our new found fortune....:eek:

Gonna be SICK for Inferno weekend tho'!

Pray for May...

[clg898]

This weekend is going to be dangerous IMO. Even if avy danger is moderate, there will likely be a lot of people in the ravine making safe travel difficult to impossible. Don't want to see a repeat of Nov. '02, that was during the shoulder season, Moderate Avy Danger, but too many people clammoring for the goods lead to an unfortunate ending. Here's the accident report:

http://www.tuckerman.org/accident/Summaries03/otherincidents2003.htm#11-29-2002

Enjoy the reprive from black flies and Summer, but be safe out there!

[boardman]

This weekend is going to be dangerous IMO. Even if avy danger is moderate, there will likely be a lot of people in the ravine making safe travel difficult to impossible. Don't want to see a repeat of Nov. '02, that was during the shoulder season, Moderate Avy Danger, but too many people clammoring for the goods lead to an unfortunate ending. Here's the accident report:

http://www.tuckerman.org/accident/Summaries03/otherincidents2003.htm#11-29-2002

Enjoy the reprive from black flies and Summer, but be safe out there!

Man, I remember that. One of the deceased was a frequent poster on Gunks.com (as well as other sites). Such a tragedy, all the more so for being avoidable.

Good advice. If you don't have avalanche training, beacon, probe and shovel and the knowledge to use them, this weekend is probably not the weekend for you to be in the Ravines.

[Seeker]

Left Gully looks PHAT, and the Lip looks SWEET! The next month is looking UP!

NEXT MONTH?!? I am sure to be lynched, but this snow is ruining my Spring plan, i.e. Spring skiing in April, cycling/hiking in May and then Summer begins. Argh! I am so ready to not have to drive somewhere every weekend! And when there is good skiing to be had I find it nearly impossible to do anything else! Oy!

[boardman]

NEXT MONTH?!? I am sure to be lynched, but this snow is ruining my Spring plan, i.e. Spring skiing in April, cycling/hiking in May and then Summer begins. Argh! I am so ready to not have to drive somewhere every weekend! And when there is good skiing to be had I find it nearly impossible to do anything else! Oy!

:cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry:

[surfy]

Seeker,

No lynching - I know what you are saying. I have a pool business on the side so that I can afford to ski. This morning I was installing a pool heater in the snow. And I've got a guy that thinks I should open his pool next week. What's with that?

surfy

[chickwhorips]

I joked with PWRDR8S and Astrotech yesterday that we should ask EMS to run the AVI II course that they cancelled on us in late March due to lack of snow! Now that winter is back, there are probably many unstable layers to analyse!

The runout of this new slide is a good reminder that travel in avalanche terrain includes assessment of potential runout paths. It is not spring in the Ravine, it is winter. Bring probe, shovel and beacon if you go!

Hey, if it keeps snowing like this I might still be able to get some skiing in when my brain is healed!!!! (4 weeks post-concussion and still counting)

[Seeker]

:cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry:

LMAO!!!

[jimkc]

here is a closer pic i took 4/11/07

http://shutter01.pictures.aol.com/data/pictures/09/008/7D/FC/BD/82/FMwP-7LiULkv7Z-wNZSfnL1jS+NlDJOW0300.jpg

[gnurider1080]

looks like conditions will be good once everything settles down. it would be nice if i could get up there next friday, saturday, or sunday, but it all depends on the avy danger.

i think i see a couple fun lines on the headwall. i hope the coverage on it is good when i get up there.

[Cliff]

Wow that must have been one hell of a slide. Nice pic there jimkc... look at all that run out. I was just watching ski movie 2 and the headwall looks like something you would see in there not mid april in tucks lol Looks like next weekend is going to be awesome depending on the weather. OK this weekend Jay next weekend Tucks :D