The Forecast Thread

[RR]

so what it it's enabling lazy mofos....here it is
Summit Forecast – Thursday, March 15, 2007
Things will start out warm across the state today but the winds of change are about to come blowing in as a cold front begins to move through. Todays highs will more than likely occur during the early morning hours because as the cold front passes, temperatures will begin to dive once again. As the front passes, precipitation will begin as rain but towards the backside of the front, the cold temperatures will bring snow to end the day with a mix of precipitation types as it transitions. There is also a chance for an isolated thunderstorm with this front since there is a bit of instability and there are a few cells popping up in the southern portions of the front. The Whites may act as a catalyst aiding in thunderstorm generation if anything which will mean thunderstorms overhead or just east of the range. After the front passes and moves offshore, things will begin to clear overnight as Canadian high pressure builds down. This clearing will be met by colder northern temperatures through tomorrow. During the day tomorrow, clouds above will be on the increase from the south as a coastal low starts making its way northward. A few snow showers could arrive here as early as tomorrow afternoon, but the bulk of the energy will not pass til later in the night. Tomorrows storm that will approach looks juicy according to the models, so maybe some of the snow we lost the past few days will recover by the end of this weekend.

[RR]

Summit Forecast – Wednesday, April 4, 2007
The calendar may read spring but it will feel much more like winter this week...Aprilary or Aprilember? The backdoor high pressure system that provided a complete undercast yesterday is retreating to the east today as a closed low over the Great Lakes heads our way. This morning a warm front is spreading over the state bringing snow showers to the summits. Showers will continue through the day in the form of light snow and possibly freezing rain or sleet during the first part of the day before cooler air moves in. Towards the evening, a cut-off low forming over New Jersey will start moving north as it moves off the coast. As this system moves north, snow will pick up and will be heavy at times overnight as forcing is at its greatest. As this system starts out, snow will be dense and wet before turning less dense by morning. Winds will also pick up slightly as the low moves up. Given the dynamics of this system, there may even a chance for an isolated thunderstorm, or thundersnow as its called, to move through. Thursday morning, the heavier snow starts to give way to snow showers as the low lifts out. At the end of the storms main activity expect close to a foot of new snow to have fallen. We will have to see how much actually remains un-blown on the summits though. The low will continue tracking North during the day Thursday eventually meeting up with the low from the Great Lakes. As these merge, they will deepen creating windy conditions in the afternoon into the night. After this, the low will park itself over Quebec where it will spin in a series of weak shortwaves in the coming week with a cool pool or air remaining in place over the northeast. As this low remains, the dynamics will be ripe for more upslope showers as well. The White Mountains will defiantly be white this week when all is said and done. Wind chills will be 0-10 below today, 5-15 below overnight, and 10-20 below tomorrow.

[Affix Snow]

Looks like we'll be Lapping the Sherbie 2morrow mornin'!!!!!

[Affix Snow]

Here comes the yo-yo snow of April. Gain a little lose a lot, gain a lot lose a little. You’ve all seen it before so you know what I’m talking about. As of 7am we received 2.4" (6cm) at Hermit Lake and 1.6" (4cm) on the summit with 8 and 10% density respectively over the past 24 hours. The big news of course is the issuance of a WINTER STORM WARNING from 8am this morning through 10am Thursday. The number 1 phrase of the day in the National Weather Service discussions is "Frontogenetic forcing on the thermal ribbon". In other words…precipitation! We will likely see 8-12" (20-30cm) by morning with half of that possible by dark today. Some sources are pumping out 16", but this seems a bit optimistic. Crossing your fingers couldn’t hurt though. As this system moves out gentle upslope conditions should deliver additional healthy accumulations by the weekend. The Salgus weather model is anticipating the potential for 20” (50cm) between now and Saturday morning. Let’s hope the model’s algorithm is correct.

Word up *****es!

[NtrentT]

FANTASTIC !!!!

MADE MY DAY !

I was hoping someone would filter out the info and post it here...

Whoopie !!!

Next week may be better than I thought.

[davidhowland14]

lucky. but it follows the pattern. david goes to tux-> snow the next week.

[twintipper]

great. i was suppose to be up there friday-suday but all my friends ditched on me and what else does it do but dump in the ravine.

[2plankerider]

great. i was suppose to be up there friday-suday but all my friends ditched on me and what else does it do but dump in the ravine.

my freinds have been ditching me for years when TUX finally rolls around

do what i do...

GO ANYWAY!

[2plankerider]

Looks like we'll be Lapping the Sherbie 2morrow mornin'!!!!!

your MOM laps the sherbie.

[Affix Snow]

your MOM laps the sherbie.

The Sherbie laps YOUR mom.:D

[2plankerider]

The Sherbie laps YOUR mom.:D

touche'

shouldn't you be on your way north by now?

enjoy
colour me jealous

[Affix Snow]

Leaving after work......

Gonna be an interesting nite of driving.

[RR]

great. i was suppose to be up there friday-suday but all my friends ditched on me and what else does it do but dump in the ravine. my freinds have been ditching me for years when TUX finally rolls around

do what i do...

GO ANYWAY!
Got that Right...

You set aside the time...go, dammit! ;)
You won't be lonely...real sliders will be there and friendly is the operative word! ....well, it's still first come first served on the shelters....but go anyway (BRING BACON! ...someone wise will let you squeeze in :D )

[RR]

Leaving after work......

Gonna be an interesting nite of driving.yeah...wear you helmet AffixMario!

At least you will have excellent company!

[twintipper]

Got that Right...

You set aside the time...go, dammit! ;)
You won't be lonely...real sliders will be there and friendly is the operative word! ....well, it's still first come first served on the shelters....but go anyway (BRING BACON! ...someone wise will let you squeeze in :D )

I had to flip my whole schedule to get this weekend off, you bet I'm still going to be up there. I've gone the past 2 years; can't break a tradition while it's this young.

[RR]

I had to flip my whole schedule to get this weekend off, you bet I'm still going to be up there. I've gone the past 2 years; can't break a tradition while it's this young.That's the spirit!

[Affix Snow]

That's the spirit!

and here is NEXT YEARS Spirit's.

http://www.scialp.it/notizie/scarponi/scarpa/2007/Spirit.jpg

[2plankerider]

I had to flip my whole schedule to get this weekend off, you bet I'm still going to be up there. I've gone the past 2 years; can't break a tradition while it's this young.

it is a great tradition to continue every year, and no, you can NEVER break a TUX tradition. glad to see you have the same 'tude

[Rider.Steve]

Hopefully AVI risk will taper by weekend. If not, Jay is predicting 24 inches +.

[tig]

Yippee!

[boardman]

Leaving after work......

Gonna be an interesting nite of driving.

Bastid! Figures this week I would be under the gun at work. ARGHHHH! And the holiday's f'ing me for the weekend. Oh well, it's supposed to be cold this weekend, so the snow should still be there next week. If I'm lucky, I'll get up there one day next week, AND all of next weekend.

[tig]

...the ice will stay in too.

Looks like April might be a good month in the Tux, after all...
(not that any month there is 'bad' but u know what i mean...)

Another storm is also expected around the 12th, but thats long range...

[JBHeadParrot]

I have relatives in Jackson and they said they're supposed to get upwards of 16 inches of snow! There's 5" already on the ground with the heavy stuff falling tonight. :D

Don't forget to check the avalanche warning!

[samthaman]

who chose the awful green for next years spirits, its almost as bad as the blue on my old denali XT's

[JBHeadParrot]

The storm is supposed to end Thursday afternoon...
Wildcat is expecting 12-18 INCHES of snow on the upper mountain...

Powder Day on Good Friday... meaning you may not have to burn a sick day!
:D

[davidhowland14]

argh. I have a ride. and skis. and boots. and no money. job can't come soon enough.

[Andy1214]

Raining in ct now.....ohh boy

[twintipper]

The storm is supposed to end Thursday afternoon...
Wildcat is expecting 12-18 INCHES of snow on the upper mountain...

Powder Day on Good Friday... meaning you may not have to burn a sick day!
:D
there'll be powder all around but what about the avy danger and all the hidden obsticles

[boardman]

Anybody got a report for Mt. Washington, or at least the MWV? Killington is reporting 12". On the webcam, you can make out the Ravine and GOS, and it looks definitely whiter, but that doesn't tell me much.

Answered my own question - from the Avy Report:

"April has started off with a bang in an attempt to redeem the winter of 2006-7. Storm totals at the lower elevations are a bit more substantial than up high, but we'll see if the summits can catch up by the weekend. For an elevational comparison the 2000ft level picked up about 14" (35cm), the 3800ft level received 11.5" (29cm), while the 6288ft level only accumulated 7.8" (20cm) of new snow. S winds through the storm loaded new deposition onto N aspects and cross loaded some easterly facing slopes. The winds will stay from southerly directions through the morning and make a quick transition through the East, North, and around to the West this afternoon. Once out of the West, between 2 or 3 o'clock, increasing winds will begin our most substantial loading of the day."

Also, the trail conditions page is listing 11.4" at Tux.

With more to come today into tomorrow! YEAAHHHHHHHHHHHHH!

[pulverschwein]

Anybody got a report for Mt. Washington, or at least the MWV? Killington is reporting 12". On the webcam, you can make out the Ravine and GOS, and it looks definitely whiter, but that doesn't tell me much.
Like this?
http://www.mountwashington.org/weather/summit.php
http://www.outdoors.org/recreation/tripplanner/go/backcountry-weather.cfm
http://www.mountwashington.org/weather/avalanche/
http://skiwildcat.com/snowreport.html
Or something else?
Wow - 14 to 17 at the Cat!:envy:

[boardman]

Like this?
http://www.mountwashington.org/weather/summit.php
http://www.outdoors.org/recreation/tripplanner/go/backcountry-weather.cfm
http://www.mountwashington.org/weather/avalanche/
http://skiwildcat.com/snowreport.html
Or something else?
Wow - 14 to 17 at the Cat!:envy:

yep! just edited my previous thread! None of that stuff was up when I checked it earlier (or my cache was stuck, I don't know).

[chickwhorips]

An email from a friend in Jackson at 8 am today:

Subject: UNBELIEVABLE SNOW !!!!!!
"16+ inches at my house, snowing still"

I'm really bummed. Doc said that I am not allowed to ski anymore this year since I can't take the chance of getting another concussion until my brain has fully recovered from the trauma of the first one :cry:

River has gotten about 20" also. 'Cat should be sweet today and tomorrow.
I would not be ashamed of lapping the Sherbie when the AVI is High like it is today... And I don't know if people realize this, but Attitash closed last Sunday, so that might be the best place to find untracked this weekend, if you are willing to earn your turns!

[boardman]

From the Backcountry trail report, it looks like Tuckerman picked up
another 4" -- that's nearly 16" so far, with light snow still falling. The webcams show a lenticular-like cloud shrouding the summit, but you can make out the lower mountain (esp. in the Premium Content close-ups of GOS, Tux, Huntington), and it looks very much like winter. It's making me all giddy just lookin' at it!

Wonder if Affix will find himself an internet portal to share the goings on up there?!

[boardman]

Killington reporting 18" so far from this system, and the K-1 Webcam confirms that it's still falling at a solid clip . . .

[PWDR8S]

Sunapee got 11 by Thursday AM and the skiing was great and it kept snowing all day for another few... Today, after grooming, those trails were schaweeeeet! Yes... I'm back in the saddle again. Skiing is good medicine! :D