Baton down the hatches !!!!

[DMC]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT13/refresh/AL1303W5+GIF/132218W5.gif

[TheOctopus]

Yikes. Just what we need on the East Coast this summer -- more rain (not to mention the high wind and storm surge for those unlucky enough to live where the thing comes ashore).

Take some comfort in the wild unpredictability of hurricane forecasts and the distance this one still has to travel before making landfall. Still, if y'all Coasters' hurricance plans and emergency kits ain't in order, now might be a good time....

[DMC]

I've been surfing the weather sites this AM looking for the best forecast.... :) Headed out to see the JETS this afternoon...

Looks like it snow in the Rockies last night...

[skicdave]

Darn... guess I'll have to wait a few days before I can finish re-staining the :hottub:

[kfarrar]

That looks like quite a storm. Too bad its not a Nor Easter thats gonna drop a foot plus of snow. Darn!

[elwood]

Look at that sucker. Anyone feel like getting wet?
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories/images/isabel091403-1645z.jpg

[2plankerider]

kfarrar:
That looks like quite a storm. Too bad its not a Nor Easter thats gonna drop a foot plus of snow. Darn! i was thinking that very same thing....if it was winter it would be the makings of a beauty.
mmmmmmmmmm noooooorrrr eeaaaaaaterrrssss......

[kmrnskier]

The eye on her is just incredibly big. Does anyone know what the diameter is on it? I heard something about 40 miles?

[TenSeven]

I haven't been able to find the size of the eye but the storm is only 1 mph under a cat. 5. Last Cat. 5 to hit shore was Andrew.

[kfarrar]

The Farmers Almanac says it could be quite a winter. So maybe, we'll see some BIG storms.

[elwood]

kfarrar:
The Farmers Almanac says it could be quite a winter. So maybe, we'll see some BIG storms. Let's hope so. Hopefully it won't be freaking 20 below all winter too though... Although I'll take the bitter cold as long as we get a s#^%load of snow...

[DMC]

The news said the eye was as big as 70 miles at one point...
yikes!!!

I'm sweating this one out...

[elwood]

Another satellite image from this storm....

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories/images/isabel091403-2115ze2.jpg

And this morning's report discusses the eye a bit, but no size:

WTNT43 KNHC 150834
TCDAT3
HURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2003

ISABEL IS SHOWING STRUCTURAL MIXED SIGNALS THIS EVENING. ON ONE
SIDE...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE EYE REMAINS WELL DEFINED AND
THAT CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE EYE HAVE COOLED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. ON THE OTHER...REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER INDICATE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 940 MB AND THAT
THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS ARE 138 KT. THE AIRCRAFT HAS ALSO
REPORTED WELL-DEFINED CONCENTRIC WIND MAXIMA. SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 115 KT...AS ARE THE LATEST OBJECTIVE
ESTIMATES. THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE REDUCED TO 130 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY...AND THE STORM COULD BE A LITTLE WEAKER THAN THIS.

WHILE THERE HAS BEEN A WOBBLE TO THE LEFT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/9...THE SAME DIRECTION AS EARLIER. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE ELONGATED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SOUTHEASTWARD TO EAST OF
ISABEL...AND WESTERLY FLOW WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. ISABEL SHOULD BEGIN TO
TURN NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE DURING THE
NEXT 12-24 HR...THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE BROAD TROUGHING TO THE WEST. ALL
DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...BRINGING
ISABEL TO THE VICINITY OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST IN 72-96 HR. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO...BUT A LITTLE WEST OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK. SINCE THE TRACK IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE COAST
AT A SMALL ANGLE...A SMALL CHANGE IN DIRECTION COULD RESULT IN A
LANDFALL WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. INTERESTS
FROM THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN STATES SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISABEL.

ISABEL IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN A WARM-WATER LIGHT-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
FOR THE NEXT 36 HR...AND THUS FLUCTUATION IN INTENSITY FROM EYEWALL
CONTRACTION CYCLES ARE LIKELY. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE HURRICANE
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE UNITED STATES...AND THUS MAY EXPERIENCE
SOME SHEAR. THE SHIPS MODEL SUGGESTS 30-40 KT OF SHEAR...AND IF
THAT VERIFIES ISABEL COULD WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY. HOWEVER...THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT ON THIS...SO THE INTENSITY
FORECAST WILL CALL FOR ONLY A MODEST WEAKENING BEFORE LANDFALL. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE COASTAL SHELF WATER ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST IS RATHER COLD...AND ANY TRACK EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS THAT
WOULD KEEP THE HURRICANE OVER THAT WATER WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE MORE
WEAKENING THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0900Z 24.8N 69.0W 130 KT
12HR VT 15/1800Z 25.5N 70.1W 130 KT
24HR VT 16/0600Z 26.5N 71.0W 130 KT
36HR VT 16/1800Z 27.9N 71.9W 125 KT
48HR VT 17/0600Z 29.2N 72.6W 120 KT
72HR VT 18/0600Z 33.5N 75.0W 115 KT
96HR VT 19/0600Z 40.0N 78.0W 60 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 20/0600Z 48.5N 80.0W 35 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL

[DMC]

WOW!!!!
what a georgeous storm...

I love weather... I love skiing when the wind is howling and the snow is pelting... Or when it's raining... I'm sick like that...

[BladeGirl]

WOW! Thats an amazing picture! Thanks, Elwood. Is it too early to start chanting my winter mantra "its all snow in the mountains"?

-BG

[Castlerock]

Not a chance on this one being snow.

By the Way, here is the 11Am Monday discussion

WTNT43 KNHC 151502
TCDAT3
HURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2003

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE INNER CORE STRUCTURE CONTINUES
TO BREAK DOWN...WITH A LESS WELL-DEFINED EYE IN VISIBLE IMAGERY.
EYEWALL CONVECTION HAS BECOME ASYMMETRIC AND FRAGMENTED...AND THE
OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE IS NOW MORE BANDED THAN IT WAS OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE LATEST DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 115 KT. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 120 KT
AND ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE HURRICANE AT
18Z.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/7...SLOWER THAN BEFORE. WITH THE
MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE OFF THE CAROLINAS MOVING OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...THE STEERING CURRENTS SURROUNDING ISABEL ARE BEGINNING
TO WEAKEN AS SOME RIDGING TEMPORARILY BUILDS IN NORTHWEST...AHEAD
OF...THE HURRICANE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOW MOTION TO THE
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. BY 48 HOURS OR SO...AN
APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST WILL HELP ACCELERATE ISABEL
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE
ANCHORED NEAR 35N AND 60 W. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT ON THIS TRACK ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER
THAN THE OTHER MODELS. VERY LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK...WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO THE GFDL...
UKMET...NOGAPS...GFS MODEL CONSENSUS.

ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN SOME RESTRICTION OF THE OUTFLOW IN THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT...THE CURRENT WEAKENING MAY BE MORE A RESULT OF
LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL THERMODYNAMICS. THERE ARE WESTERLIES
TO THE NORTH OF ISABEL...BUT THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FOR
THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF WARM WATER
UNDER THE HURRICANE UNTIL COOLER SHELF WATERS ARE ENCOUNTERED RIGHT
ALONG THE COASTLINE. ONE KEY TO THE ULTIMATE LANDFALL INTENSITY
WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT COULD ENHANCE
THE OUTFLOW AND REDUCE THE SHEAR PRIOR TO LANDFALL IF IT DIGS AS
SHARPLY AS FORECAST BY THE GFS. WITH THIS IN MIND...ISABEL COULD
STILL BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/1500Z 25.2N 69.4W 120 KT
12HR VT 16/0000Z 25.8N 70.3W 115 KT
24HR VT 16/1200Z 27.0N 71.2W 115 KT
36HR VT 17/0000Z 28.2N 72.0W 115 KT
48HR VT 17/1200Z 30.0N 73.0W 115 KT
72HR VT 18/1200Z 34.5N 75.5W 110 KT
96HR VT 19/1200Z 40.0N 78.0W 60 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 20/1200Z 49.5N 80.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

[elwood]

115 KNOTS.... That's some serious f&^*ing wind!

[HeyBC]

Time to haul the boats and get ready for some wind and rain.

COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK NJ TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-

1030 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2003


...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS...


.THIS AFTERNOON...E WINDS 10 KT BECOMING SE. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT. VSBY

OCCASIONALLY 1 NM OR LESS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT BECOMING SW TOWARD DAYBREAK. SEAS 4

TO 7 FT. A CHANCE OF EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

.TUE...W WINDS 10 TO 15 KT BECOMING NW. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.

.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.

.WED...NE WINDS 15 KT INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT AT NIGHT. SEAS 5 TO

8 FT BUILDING TO 8 TO 12 FT AT NIGHT.

.THU INTO FRI...TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

SURF'S UP!

[Frankontour]

I don't think to talk a lot before a while, but this hurricane is just too weird for me...

I don't know if "Isabel" or "Isabelle" are common in other languages than french, but in Québec, "Isabel" is more than extremely rare. Of all my life, I saw or knew hundreds or even thousands of Isabelle's, but only 1 Isabel. Guess what, her birthday is thursday...

I'll tell her to pray for all us, especially the ones living near the land contact area !!

[TenSeven]

Good to see you back Franko.

[kmrnskier]

I'm a little bummed at this hurricane - suppose to head to Bar Harbor/Acadia Fri-Mond this weekend. Although, the projected path seems to be a bit more to the west now. It might be pretty cool to go watch the surf though. OK, I got myself out of that 1 minute depression.
-KM

[TenSeven]

Check it out.

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/natural_hazards_v2.php3?img_id=11714

[TenSeven]

Argh, sorry, didn't work.

[M@]

she's a real bueaty this one is:

(From http://antwrp.gsfc.nasa.gov/apod/ap030916.html)

http://antwrp.gsfc.nasa.gov/apod/image/0309/isabel2_terra.jpg

[elwood]

Let's go surfing.

[SkiStooge]

Funny that the weather forecasts don't show much happening in NH for this storm. You'd think that with a storm of this size we'd get more than they show. Supposed to be partly sunny Sat after some showers on Sat AM. May end up hiking this weekend after all. Can't always tell about these storms anyways. On the other hand, even if it IS stormy, that doesn't usually stop me from hiking anyways. lol Have fun, be safe. Al :skistooge: