Last Snow Contest 2004

[M@]

Just like last year... (http://timefortuckerman.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1104&highlight=snow+contest) but a few weeks earlier start.

For those not clever enough to follow the link to last years contest, here's the deal: Guess the last day there will be snow in the ravine.

The last day = The date of the last image we have of snow in the ravine. Daily images can be obtained from the secret toni-matt zoomed in web cam. So if we get a day where there is no snow - it's not necessarily the previous day. If it's cloudy for a week, and then it clears to show no snow, it's the LAST image we got. I usually nab an image every day, and Django has a program to capture it periodically.

So gimme your best guess. A time is a good idea too... I will use ABSOLUTE difference in date/times so it's not like the price is right. If you're one day over and no-one else is close you'll win.

My offical T4T Last Snow Contest 2004 Guess is 2004-07-18 8:30am (Same as my last years guess!)

6/22/04 2:32 PM SkiStooge [eliminated]
6/24/04 3:30 PM RR [eliminated]
6/29/04 3:58 PM pepperdawg [eliminated]
6/30/04 11:00 AM P-HUG [eliminated]
7/2/04 5:00 PM SnowboardAJ [eliminated]
7/4/04 12:00 PM Frankontour [eliminated]
7/6/04 8:30 AM Bannick [eliminated]
7/8/04 4:20 PM Moose [eliminated]
7/10/04 3:27 PM Affix Snow [eliminated]
7/11/04 2:38 PM Harkin Banks [eliminated]
7/13/04 7:42 AM skicdave (late) [WINNER]
7/14/04 12:00 PM skibum12583 (late)
7/14/04 7:01 PM Skilasnow
7/15/04 12:00 PM BladeGirl
7/18/04 8:30 AM M@
7/18/04 12:00 PM LeFemmesauCanada
7/19/04 6:03 PM Mumster
7/20/04 9:14 AM Justin
7/24/04 1:00 PM elwood
7/26/04 2:00 PM kmrnskier
8/2/04 10:00 AM Jolly J

AS of 2004-07-13 Still Snow
http://timefortuckerman.com/photopost/data/500/7tuckerman-med.jpg

As of 2004-07-15 8:45 am, no snow.
http://timefortuckerman.com/photopost/data/500/7z2004-07-15_08_54_07-med.jpg

Winner is SkiCDave! (If you want to argue late entries being allowed... then it's SkiLas)
M@

[elwood]

7/24/04 1:00 PM Elwood...same as last year, but this year instead.

[Bannick]

2004-07-06 8:30am

[Affix Snow]

2004-07-10 at 3:27 pm.

[RR]

06/24/2004 15:30
Sigh!

[DMC]

This contest is too depressing for me to enter.... :(

[kmrnskier]

July 26 @ 1400

[pepperdawg]

June 29th 3:58pm

Like DMC - I dont like this game :(

[Frankontour]

Ish, last year, it was on august 6 with a tiny patch of snow, but this year, I don't think we'll close on this. My guess last year was on July 25, but as all melts 3+ weeks faster this year, my guess for this year is JULY 4, at noon.

Is Skistooge going to defend his title ?

[Bannick]

Hey there Frank....how is it going? Haven't seen you around for a while.

[kmrnskier]

Frank! Where the heck have you been? Ignoring us? Busy?

[kmrnskier]

Where is Dave? Did I miss something? Is he on vaca again?

[Skilasnow]

July 14th, 7:01 pm

[P-HUG]

June 30, 11am

[M@]

Where is Dave? Did I miss something? Is he on vaca again?
Dave is camping.

Nice to have you back FrankOnTour

[Mumster]

I was just wondering where you were these days, Franko. I got a message from les femmes du canada - have you heard from her? Anyway, how are classes? And, welcome back. :)

KM - Dave is :teardrop: for a week or so. He should be back soon. Anyone recall where he went?

M@:
I don't recall what I guessed last year, but this year it will be July 19th at 6:03PM.

[Mumster]

EEK, I just saw skicdave cruising. He must be back..... Hope he brought pics.

[skicdave]

EEK, I just saw skicdave cruising. He must be back..... Hope he brought pics.

Hiya Mumster!

Yup just back yesterday. Backlog of messages, emails etc etc so not much time to get caught back up on T4T.

Great adventure across Ontario - camping, searching for a cottage we rented for July (we had no address), family visiting, visiting Niagara Falls area (never saw them actually) , more camping.

Summary: Little blackflys, we got el primo spots at every campground, most odd moment - someone came over to check out our trailer while we were visiting a family grave at the cemetery, funniest moment - we were parked at the side of a road at a city park - Kate cooking lunch out the back of the trailer - and an elderly lady asked if we had any hot dogs - turns out she thought we were street venders! :eek:

We have another 700 photos... but hey... I still have all the Tucks photos from Easter to deal with and Jamaica too! Full time job managing photos...

I'll have to get caught up here, and analyze weather, snow levels, forecasting, pollen counts and such before I make my Last Snow perdiction...

[Bannick]

[QUOTE=skicdave] visiting Niagara Falls area (never saw them actually) QUOTE]

Ya they are pretty easy to miss. If only they were bigger. :doh:

[kmrnskier]

[QUOTE=skicdave] visiting Niagara Falls area (never saw them actually) QUOTE]

Ya they are pretty easy to miss. If only they were bigger. :doh:

HAHAHAHAHA!!!! umm....sorry Dave :rolleyes:

[Moose]

July 8, 2004 @ 4:20PM

[Jolly J]

August 2, 10am...Hey I can dream can't I?

[Harkin Banks]

Gee, I really was hoping to ski on my birthday, but this year's snow is going too fast I'm afraid. Gotta go w/the bday....July 11, at 2:38 in the afternoon!
HB

[Frankontour]

Wow ! Thanks for the welcome !

And sorry to not have replied before, I was left for a weekend of skiing on the remaining patches of the southern province. (Skied Saint-Sauveur friday and Tremblant and La Réserve saturday). There is still some nice ski to do here, but it's depressing to see all the white disappear so fast, this year :(

Effectively, I lurk enough on TFT, but being administrator and moderator on Zoneski, I pass 20-30 hours by week to work on the website, so it's tough to be very present... (especially as I have another summer term (full time), this year... but it's the last one !). But it's always a pleasure to read the reports of Tucks + see the pics and videos, even though this year wasn't the best one !!

At least we can say without doubt that next year WILL be better than this one !! (the opposite is impossible !!)

[DMC]

God - I hope your right...
Let's hope THIS YEAR was the exception.... As I sweat my a$$ off in hazy, hot and humid weather....

Did you guys get Spring up there??? We went right to summer..... :(

[kmrnskier]

I don't know guys, I had a wonderful time up there this year, everytime I went! I really lucked out on the weather, with the exception of the day Skilas and I went the 2nd time - didn't want to ski on ice I guess.

And then there were was the snowpatch........

[DMC]

KMRN -Your what I call a "Lemonade Person"...

When life gives you lemons - you make lemonade...

I'm glad you guys had a great time up there!!!
I just want more.... Dodges... Dutchess... Empress.... Lobster... All the Chute variations... I want to ski from the snowfields to the shelters then down to the car...

Next year!!!

[kmrnskier]

[QUOTE=DMC]KMRN -Your what I call a "Lemonade Person"...

When life gives you lemons - you make lemonade...

I get that from my dad, he's the same way. Simple pleasures make me happy, SNOW being the best of those. :D

[DMC]

I get that from my dad, he's the same way. Simple pleasures make me happy, SNOW being the best of those.

Now your just talkin sexy!
;)

Ski chicks are cool.... thats what I always tell Alexa...

[kmrnskier]

Now your just talkin sexy!
;)

Ski chicks are cool.... thats what I always tell Alexa...


:) :cooldog:

[Frankontour]

Spring ? Good question, we got one, but it started in late february and ended in early april when summer arrived !

But I've not seen the summer arrive too fast, as we headed in the northern ski areas of the province to get some real skiing late in the year. Starting on march 20, I've skied :

2x at the Massif du Sud
2x at Mt Grand-Fonds
3x at Mt Edouard
1x at Stoneham

So it was a shock when I came back in the southern ski areas to see all the bare spots and the lack of snow.

It was amazing to ski the glades of Mt Édouard almost without bare spots on may 8... but damn, when we came back here, it was more than summer... :envy:

[DMC]

You guys get the black flies up there in Canada???

[Frankontour]

Yeah, we have them for about 1 week now. At least, this weekend, it wasn't too worst, as the weather was around 60, which is cold for them so they were not too much agressive.


PS I forgot to answer to Skimum about Les Femmes au Canada. No, I didn't hear about her since I write less on TFT...

[BladeGirl]

*sigh* July 15, high noon.
-BG :(

[Justin]

July, 20th 9:14 AM

[SkiStooge]

My guess for last snow of the year is going to be 31 December 2004 at 11:59pm. My guess for last snow THIS warm season is going to be 22 June 2004 at 2:32pm. M@: I'm assuming the same criterion is being used this year to verify snow, correct? I.E. The regular Ravine Cam? Dude, this soooo sucks that I'm not getting any Tucks turns this year! Following last years dismal 2 day showing, I may have to begin hanging my head in shame. Or even go off the deep end and buy a King Pine season pass!!! I think not!!! lol OK, there's my input. Al

[skicdave]

You guys get the black flies up there in Canada???

Black Flys? What Black Flys???

http://campadk.com/pjsnoozer/images/missesroboto1.jpg

Yah we get em... but I'm planning on camping this weekend either in Ontario or upstate NY... will be bringing our nets!!!

mmmm..... fresh bugs!

[skicdave]

Back on topic.... Anybody notice my stategy for the last snow contest? Wait till everyone else submits a date/time and then plug in mine on the tail end b ased on..er... whatever?

Darn... Stoogarama ruined that with his Dec 31 guess... sheesh...

PS... its end of day Tues.. pls bare with me

[SnowboardAJ]

im gonna say July 2nd, 5:00 PM

[SnowboardAJ]

July 2nd, 5:00 PM

[Mumster]

My guess for last snow of the year is going to be 31 December 2004 at 11:59pm. My guess for last snow THIS warm season is going to be 22 June 2004 at 2:32pm. M@: I'm assuming the same criterion is being used this year to verify snow, correct? I.E. The regular Ravine Cam? . Al

Al:
Didn't we send you up last year to confirm the absence of snow? There was a white spot remaining on the webcam; didn't it turn out to be a waterfall? Anyway, you can volunteer to hike up again to confirm. :happyhiker:

[LeFemmesauCanada]

Bonjour.

July 18, 2004 at noon.

[SkiStooge]

Mum: Wasn't me last year to officially report. But I was up there about the weekend or so after. Water can look a LOT like snow on the cam, I've noticed. Dave: Nice bug hat. However, I find that black flies are a good source of protein when enough are eaten as a diet supplement. Therefore, I say, Nix the net! Eat the flies! Scratching welts from their bites is good, FREE entertainment! Donating blood to them is a nice thing to do! Blood is highly over-rated anyways! Besides, Ben's makes a really nice bug repellent that is 98% DEET. Keeps them away quite well (except the one that get inhaled due to the normal breathing process). The Ben's may blind you if it sweats into your eyes and your skin may fall off or something because of it but you won't get TOO bitten and you also have better visibility! lol 'fly season is reasonably short anyways. Al

[M@]

Unless SkiStooge get's up there with a propane torch, he's not gonna win this year.

http://timefortuckerman.com/photopost/data/500/7z2004-06-22_07_17_47-med.jpg

M@

[RR]

Me either....who will be the last to make turns on snow in the Ravine before last winter's snow is all gone?

[Frankontour]

It's funny, I look at my archives of Tucks' webcam pics from last year and the most similar pic that I have (for the snow remaining) is on the 22th of....july ! :doh:

I won the TFT cup for early skiing this year, but I'm not going to ski Tucks next weekend finally. I thought doing it, but I'm heading to the northern QC instead. Unfortunately, I don't think there is some skiable snow left there, as there was almost nothing left on the memorial day weekend. (I should try the Torngats :rolleyes: )

So my season was from october 20 to may 22, 216 days long (7 months) with 47 ski days (including 23 days/part of days of hiking for turns). I'm hopeful to ski again in october this year... on more snow this time !

[Harkin Banks]

Me either....who will be the last to make turns on snow in the Ravine before last winter's snow is all gone?

Well, I was there nine days ago, on June 13th. Can anyone beat that? It looks like most of what I skied in the lower sluice/lunch rocks area is still (somehow) hanging on! The rest of everything else is obviously gone...
So, somewhere in what's left will develop into the snow arch? Or is that only on big snow years? And does the arch always occur in the same place in the ravine? Hmmmm....inquiring minds... And the correct respondent is.... ?
HB ;)

[BladeGirl]

Well, I was there nine days ago, on June 13th. Can anyone beat that? It looks like most of what I skied in the lower sluice/lunch rocks area is still (somehow) hanging on! HB ;)

Keep on hangin', snow, for another 23 days .....c'mon snow!
-BG

[P-HUG]

Watch out I'm getting close!!!!

[M@]

Keep on hangin', snow, for another 23 days .....c'mon snow!

Let's go SNOW! (clap, clap, clap clap clap)

(stupid: You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to BladeGirl again)

M@

[M@]

Hey:
This is a good post for surpassing the "you must spread it around" rep stuff - there are a lof different posters on this one, so you can rep like 10 people without having to go from post to post looking for a good post.

SkiFemmes Canada - you know you gotta rep her.

M@

[gwest]

Check out the recent trips page for my TR. I should be able to post pics about a week from now when I get home. The snow arch is there. It forms over the main stream/waterfall thing that flows down. Snow looks like its got at least 2-3 weeks before it's allll gone.

[skibum12583]

Hello all,
I know this almost like winning a fixed race, but can we still enter bids? After a heated discussion at redbones tonight, my best guess as of today is the 14th at noon. Kinda hard to tell not having seen it at all, but me, skilas and Harkin will know soon enough!
~Les

[skicdave]

Brother... hey I didn't even submit my guess! Well if M@ lets us late comers submit our 'bids'.. I'll take my last years guess of July 25 and subtract 12 days based on a complex comparision of this/last years temperature and precipitation... that would give me the unlucky guess of July 13, 2004 at 7:42am +/- 5 minutes.

Feel free to disqualify my late entry... be a good excuse to drink :beer: :beer: and sob...

[Jolly J]

[
6/22/04 2:32 PM SkiStooge (Current Trophy Holder) [Eliminated]
6/24/04 3:30 PM RR [Eliminated]
6/29/04 3:58 PM pepperdawg
6/30/04 11:00 AM P-HUG
7/2/04 5:00 PM SnowboardAJ
7/4/04 12:00 PM Frankontour
7/6/04 8:30 AM Bannick
7/8/04 4:20 PM Moose
7/10/04 3:27 PM Affix Snow
7/11/04 2:38 PM Harkin Banks
7/14/04 7:01 PM Skilasnow
7/15/04 12:00 PM BladeGirl
7/18/04 8:30 AM M@
7/18/04 12:00 PM LeFemmesauCanada
7/19/04 6:03 PM Mumster
7/20/04 9:14 AM Justin
7/24/04 1:00 PM elwood
7/26/04 2:00 PM kmrnskier
8/2/04 10:00 AM Jolly J


M@

DON't....GET....ELIMINATED!!!!

[BladeGirl]

I give JollyJ points for optimism!
:snowdream:
-BG

[M@]

We're getting kinda close here... I counted the last webcam picture (see first post in this thread) as "snow" even though it's questionable. There are a couple pictures in the gallary that show the snow better on sunday, and I can only assume those few pixels from todays picture are actually snow.

To clarify (not change the rules) if the webcam picture shows what I think is snow, it is called snow. If a web cam picture shows NO snow, we will declare the last picture with snow in it the offical date/time setting picture. If someone hikles up and get's a picture of snow still in the ravine, we will count that as the offical date/time setting picture and adjust. So: we will probably call the winner an unconfirmed winner until we get a picture with no snow. So, short version, only a SNOW showing picture will change a declared winner.

M@

[LeFemmesauCanada]

Hey:
SkiFemmes Canada - you know you gotta rep her.

M@

Merci beaucoup!

How can we see when the snow is gone?

[BladeGirl]

I see that Harkin predicted the snow would be gone on his birthday. Losing this contest was probably the best birthday present the ravine could have given him!
-BG

[Harkin Banks]

I see that Harkin predicted the snow would be gone on his birthday. Losing this contest was probably the best birthday present the ravine could have given him!
-BG

True, true!! However, the next guess I believe was Skilas, with 7/14. If the snow is gone today (which it most likely is), I guess it's closer to the 14th than the 11th... Oh well, lose the poll, win last tracks!! I'll take it!
HB

[Justin]

come on Noreaster <crossing fingers>

[M@]

Let's go snow. <clap clap> <clap clap clap>

M@

[BladeGirl]

9:21 am: almost totally fogged in. Couldn't see a thing.
-BG

[RR]

Like a steam locomotive, rollin' down the track
Snow's gone, gone, nothin's gonna bring it back...The Snow's gone.
.....
Don't worry, we have Ulrr on our side....we will have snow in a couple short months. Uhh, you did remember to pour out an offering to Ulrr.....

Note: Just my take, but Ulrr seems to like fine spirits so I guess High spirits would be fine too. I'm not sure Ulrr likes the stench of burning p-tex, so I keep my old skis and pour out the first sip to Ullr instead.

[BladeGirl]

11:20 AM shot is wet and grey. :(
-BG

[M@]

SkiCDave is the Winner! He did post his guess on the late side - but we didn't have a closing date so I guess it's offical.

The LAST snow was on July 13th at 8:39am, as per the webcam picture.
Today - there is NO VISIBLE snow. If someone hikes up there this weekend and gets a picture of snow - these results will be revised. SkiChick and myself have good reason to hike up, as the verification of snow would make one of us the winner... and she is looking for a hike in this thread: http://timefortuckerman.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2534

I might see if Anna (3yr old) wants to hike up... I'd even carry her little skiis... then she would posses the last tracks trophy!

M@

[Mumster]

I think today was the last day. Don't you see residual snow? :snowflakes:

[Skilasnow]

Conga Rats! to Skicdave, though I feel slighted Your guess was right on the :money: albeit a late guess,... I'll have to hold off next year : )

[Bannick]

skilasnosleep.....

[skicdave]

What I'd like you to think: "Ok so I was a tad late, but my analysis required a lot of er... analysis, and my spectrosnowtricklemometer was late arriving from manufacturer, and I had to consult the 10 years of historical meltage observations. Oh and I had to purchase a new Dell to compute all the data..."

Reality: Busy procrastonating and doing other stuff and never got around to it.

Learn From Your Mistakes: Ok I'm going to be the first to put in my submission for Last Snow 2005. I'm guessing July 13th at 13:13.

I think Skilasnow should be the true lasnow winner... hey he lives for last snow! He even has the photos to prove it, and was only off by a day.. I bet that last patch lasted a day but we couldn't be see on the cam...

http://timefortuckerman.com/photopost/data/500/182desperate-skier.gif

[Skilasnow]

:D

Yeah, this week has been skilanosleep week...