Tahoe about to get nailed

[yuckster]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_p60_120l.gif

Is this actually going to be too much snow / enough to cause travel difficulties? I have a sudden long weekend planned, fly out thursday return sunday. trying to decide between Tahoe and Mount Hood.

All you snow pundits? Discuss?

[Dr. W. Schlitz]

Where would you fly into if you did Tahoe? I don't know much about flying and out of Reno and how those flights are affected by snow, but if you're starting from SF, you should be good to get up there on Thursday (they will have cleaned up from Tuesday's snow already). You'll want to leave plenty of time (6 hours?) to return on Sunday. Your chances of being on time will increase if you're at Sugar Bowl (closer to SF so you beat a lot of traffic and miss out on some of the I-80 mess) or Kirkwood (back route out of the mountain that is certainly slow going but doesn't have too much traffic usually). BUT, if you aren't staying at Kirkwood will be slow going to get there from South Lake because you have to drive over 2 passes to get there.

One more edit: CalTrans is a good resource for finding out whether the roads are closed for avy control. The people working at the mountains usually have a decent idea about whether or not you're stuck (and have to ski the rest of the storm before you can go home...)

[jumpturn]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_p60_120l.gif
All you snow pundits? Discuss?
Go to Mammoth. ski pow, boulder in bishop, and hang at the hot springs.

If you get motivated you can skin up any of infinite lines.

Fly into Reno on SWA.

[yuckster]

Last time I went there was via Reno. Going through Reno seems like a no brainer, it's much closer and maybe more in the precipitation shadow. Just one sensible way in or out, and that's I80 or maybe the mount rose highway.

My concerns revolve more around just getting to/from the hotel to the resorts (Squaw, Alpine Meadows, maybe Kirkwood), inbounds avalanche potential, and perhaps parts of the resort being closed while they dig the place out!

[jumpturn]

Don't bother with the tahoe stuff. just go to Mammoth.

395 is usually cleared pretty well. 2.5 hours.

http://www.dot.ca.gov/hq/roadinfo/mtnhwys.htm

[jumpturn]

No worries. The east side is in a rain shadow. 395 has elevations of 7-8k. They have plows. They are used to 6' dumps.

Way better than any driving on the west, eg 50. 50 goes through super nasty avi terrain, and you can bet it will be closed for days if the storm is big. 80 usually stays open.

[Dr. W. Schlitz]

I can't weigh in on Mammoth vs. North Lake as I spent almost all of my Tahoe time the past two seasons down around South Lake and Kirkwood, but I can say for sure that it's not worth trying to get to Kirkwood (or Heavenly) from Reno.

[Cat in January]

From TahoeLoco:
Skies will be clearing by Wednesday, and Thursday should be mostly fair. But a major series of storms lining up in the Pacific are due to move into the region by Friday.
This will be a major weather event, with the moisture-laden Central Pacific jet stream merging with the cold air from the polar jet to bring significant rain and snow to the region for several days. The higher peaks should be measuring snowfall in feet, not inches, between Friday and Tuesday. There is still some question about snow levels, but the latest models continue to show snow falling for most of this time below 7000 feet.

So if that holds, then elevation is key.
Mammoth could be your best bet due to its elevation. Kirkwood is the highest of the Tahoe resorts, but Carson's pass could get shut down for extended periods. Mount Rose is the highest at the North end of the Lake.

I would worry a lot less about getting to the resort and more about how long it is closed for avy control. Definitely get chains for your rental car and get at least a midsize.

My experience limited to a month last winter was Squaw closed the most and Alpine had more open next door. Kirkwood did pretty well keeping it open. Carson Pass was definitely sketch sometimes.

Kirkwood has gotten an awful lot of snow this Fall.

I have beta for a hotspring off 395 on the way down to Mammoth if you go.

[jrcoyote]

Reno will probably be OK. Looks like the major snow is today. They will be dug out by Thursday. You can take a shuttle up to the resorts from the airport. Avy control inbounds is usually pretty good, and marked where it's not.

[Cat in January]

5-10 feet with 100mph winds. Hope you passed. If not tell the story.

[yuckster]

5-10 feet with 100mph winds. Hope you passed. If not tell the story.

The forecast for Tahoe looked scary, bad winds, too much snow, warnings that you will lose power and/or get snowed in and stuck on interlodge... another deciding factor was flights: going to Reno meant losing 1-2 ski days due to flight scheduling, but flying to SLC to sample the same storm system meant evening/night flights and 4 full days of skiing for me, 2 days for Lisa.

Thursday and Friday were partly sunny days with most terrain open at Alta including Main Baldy (with no moguls, but I heard a whoompf on the boot up) and Devil's Castle. Friday at 3:45pm some light upslope snow showers appeared.

Saturday and Sunday were storm skiing days at Alta with lots of heavy maritime snow piling up. In fact, the stuff that fell the majority of the day Saturday was graupel, which is going to pool up in concavities and cause persistent instability problems for some time to come. After doing a Keyhole run, we sat at the bus stop watching Hellgate steadily sluffing graupel for 5-10 minutes until it stopped for a while.

Just a few inches on the car at the parking lot each day, but this tends to add up to much more at the favored parts of Alta. We were finding knee deep shots by Sunday, which was refills most of the day. By mid afternoon it was turning into a serious storm and the terrain below East Baldy Face had been closed. At that point, our host received a phone call warning that a friend who works the desk at Snowbird had been sent home early due to concerns that the canyon might be closed soon, so we boogied on out.

Edit: as I write this, Alta is closed due to the storm:

Alta Ski Area will not be open this morning. There is some chance we will open this afternoon. We will re-evaluate at 11 am and update this message. Stay Tuned for more information!

[jumpturn]

so, bailed on the real snow and had to settle for left overs, hunh?

it pays to stay in the lodge at alta for days when they close the road.

[yuckster]

http://www.laketahoenews.net/2010/12/tree-falls-onto-chairlift-cable-no-serious-injuries-at-sierra/

[jumpturn]

Updated 2pm on 12/21/2010

Mammoth has been named by skiinfo.com for having the most snow for any ski resort in the world! We have also broken the December record for most snowfall! Since Friday, the storm total is 10.5 feet to 15 1/2 feet of snow. The snow is absolutely unbelievable and it will surely be a white Christmas. Take some of the most epic powder runs you have ever had in anywhere from knee deep to chest deep snow! Another foot of snow is expected tonight + Thursday and Friday promise bluebird skies in all of this powder!

Snow base depth is 10.5ft-16ft with fresh powder, packed powder, and machine groomed conditions. The 2pm temp at Main Lodge is 24 degrees with*5 mph winds, at the top it’s 19 degrees with*19 mph winds.

The place to be --and the terrain is good.

[RR]

..
Edit: as I write this, Alta is closed due to the storm:
Timing, it's about timing...

Keep getting it and keep your avy sense in the "ON" position!