This weekend's outlook

[lacman]

Been thinking it over with the help of an Arrogant Busturd. Here’s my take on stability of the ravine for the weekend (not that anyone asked)...I'm open to comments, questions, other ideas, rebuttals, etc.

after looking over weather forecasts for the next few days and weather recaps of the past 2 days, it looks like Mt. W will be clearing out of the clouds tomorrow morning, temperatures will be climbing quickly, and wind will be dropping ending the day in the 20-25kt (~30-35mph) range. Overnight Friday and Saturday summit temps will stay pretty high, definitely above freezing. That’s too bad, because a couple days of melt/freeze action is the best thing we could have hoped for. Instead we get a few days of heat penetrating into the snowpack without a refreeze, and that could bring up problems a couple different ways.

First though, not only did 9.5” fall by 7am today, another 0.4” of water fell from 7-1pm in the form of snow (maybe about 4”, depends on density) plus it’s still been snowing all day. In addition to the 13+ inches, we’ve had strong W winds, which have been picking up snow from Bigelow Lawn and dropping it into Tucks all day. Great Gulf, Gulf of Slides, and Huntington all lack the large catchment area that provides Tucks with available snow for wind to pick up. Those areas definitely got snow and loading, just not to the extent that Tucks has. Today’s rating was High across the board, so there’s a damn good chance avalanches have been happening today. West wind can directly load or cross load just about everything in Tucks, especially at the speeds it’s been at today.

The first question to answer is “when is snow loading (either new snow or wind transport) going to stop?” After that we want to know where the snow has been left behind. After that we get to answer the question of what’s the weekend weather going to do to increase/decrease stability.

My outlook to the first question is that by late Friday morning at the latest winds should have died down enough to shut off the wind loading. Both the GFS and NAM weather models are showing the timing this way. It’s probable that the ravine will have been going through numerous avalanches within this weather event, so it’s possible the Lip and Headwall will have avalanched multiple times. If stable snow is what you want, when the loading shuts off and the clouds clear you’ll want to see crisp sharp fracture lines with little hangfire above them or off to the sides where it might runout into your run. With even more luck there will be the old crust sitting there having been the bed surface for the latest slide. Then it’s a game of wait until the sun softens the crust and watch out for debris in the floor. On the not so good side would be the absence of any visible fracture lines. This would indicate that since the last slide, the area in question has “reloaded” with more new snow and is primed to slide again, though probably with an even slicker bed surface than it had before. In between these extremes would be partially obscured fracture lines, indicating some reloading has occurred. If I were a betting man, I’d expect to see partial- to full-reloading on Friday morning, with thick and tricky slabs existing in many locations. So if I were looking to make turns Friday morning, it probably wouldn’t be in the bowl.

How will the weather affect stability? Let’s start with the assumption that thick cold slabs are present in all areas. Generally, cold snow keeps its energy better than warm snow. So as the day warms up, these new cold slabs will be cooking in the sun. You’d think this was all good and it would only be a matter of time before everything is safe. Think again. That would be true if it were thin slabs and it didn’t take much time for the sun to work its way through ALL of the new snow. This was the case a couple weeks ago. I think someone put up a video of locals skiing that same day. It was rated Moderate but by the end of the day everything was skied without incident. Those guys weren’t just being lazy getting up there for the afternoon, they were giving it time to cook.

Depending on how thick and how cold the slabs are, it might take a good bit of time to cook out the elasticity. So while the top of the snow might be turning to wet glop and be giving you a false sense of security, but underneath slabs are still cold and snappy. Not to mention, they’re feeling the effects of rapid changes taking place, and snowpacks like changes to take place slowly, not quickly. Take an irritated snowpack and add 190lbs in the right spot and that snowpack just might break. In fact, sometimes it doesn’t even need someone to trigger it. Just the excessively fast warming can do it. How fast is too fast? I have no idea. Nobody really does. Not even Bruce Tremper (a Utah avi forecaster and author of Staying Alive in Avalanche Terrain). Seriously, warm wet ones are unpredictable.

In addition to the unpredictable problem of an avalanche cause by too fast a warm-up, there’s the glop factor. Wet corn snow is good, but when it’s brand new snow grains turning to mush, it gets gloppy. Put the glop on a steep pitch, and you’ve got glop slides. Skiing the stuff can be tough enough, but worse, they can provide the excess stress needed to trigger a slab avalanche. Heck, let’s throw in falling ice as another potential trigger mechanism. It’s going to be HOT. So to sum it up, if you’ve got cold slabs lingering underneath new snow, potential triggers would include: a person, falling ice, wet sluffs, and just rate of warming itself. I think the most likely one would be a person, and I would expect lots of those out there tomorrow. Nothing would suck more than some idiot triggering a slide on top of you when you’ve been so careful to stay out from underneath everybody. So my outlook for tomorrow is that there might be good skiing to be had IF you’re comfortable assessing stability, use all the right safe travel rituals, and you go with the right people and gear. Just stay head’s up for what all the other people out there are doing, and don’t assume they know what they’re getting into. Its hard to go from high to low danger in a day.

Saturday stands a better chance at being more stable, but now we’re also into 24 hours of above-freezing temperatures and it’s going to be another scorcher. Remember last year’s sluff runnels? I bet we’ll be seeing them start again by the end of the weekend. I think there will still be a chance for avalanches being triggered just by the weather. Water will have begun to percolate downward, melting out strength as it goes and perhaps adding some lubrication. It’ll probably be harder for one person to be the trigger on Saturday than it was on Friday. There will be so much free water weight in the snowpack that another couple hundred pounds won’t make a difference. But 10 people booting up the Lip? Maybe enough. Or someone throwing themselves off the headwall? Hard to say this far out. My guess is that there will be areas that aren't too sketchy, but the Lip/Headwall wouldn't be one of them. This is a different scenario than when the two dudes got avalanched in Dodge's recently. The top of Dodge's didn't see temps like we're going to see tomorrow through Sunday. I think stability issues will be related to the rapid warming, not due to small pockets staying cold, dry, and elastic.

All this conjecture is based on the idea that nothing slides, naturally or otherwise. If Friday’s weather is enough to pop something out from the top, then it might be OK to head up in there afterwards and ski the rapidly softening bed surface. Also, I would not be one bit surprised if there is another avalanche accident tomorrow. If you’ve got the weekend off from work and are trying to decide whether to go or not, I’d say go for it on Saturday or Sunday, but do it smartly. Avoid tomorrow or better yet, find a better place than tucks to enjoy the snow. Don't forget to bring the sunblock and the dark mirrored sunglasses.

[Seeker]

Thanks for your assessment. A few of us are headed up this weekend, and this is all excellent food for thought.

[icelanticskier]

ya, good info. needed a nap after reading it, tired eyes ya know. my host for the 9 days that i'm in the wasatch is bruce trempers 2nd in command and a long time touring partner of mine. we caught the early tram with snow safety/patrol this morning long b4 the lifts open to the public. there were like 6 of us on the tram and the hot topic of the morning was a natural avalanche that pulled out of superior at 6:30 pm! the day b4. now the sun had long since left superior at that time and all it took was a day of rapid warming with a chunk of cornice dropping onto a late day water saturated slope to rip out a big one. after our tour which started with helping the bird patrol open some of the bc access gates which gave craig and i an early jump on things to "work" different aspects to satiate our sliding pleasures, we drove up the road towards alta to check out the slide which was impressive. on our way down canyon the y couloir was again, like yesterday, pouring it's lava to an ever growing debris apron. the "y" looks like a$$ at this point for anyone that is wondering. temps are gonna start dropping here tomorrow to lock things up for the snow that will fall from here on in.

so ya, wet activity, about as tricky as it gets. i would be extra concerned with the warm nights to come. tomorrow early could be the ticket in many overlooked places up high. tucks? scares me to think about it.

rog

[yuckster]

(a very long post)

Disagree on a couple points:

1) "Warm wet ones" are not wholly unpredictable, we have a classic recipe for them shaping up. We will see much more rapid extreme warming than on the day last year when I sat there and witnessed a natural warmth triggered slide come down
2) You seem to think people are the most likely triggers for tommorrow. I think natural sluffs to small Class 1 slabs will be extremely likely in the bowl on Friday! Saturday/Sunday is another story and my crystal ball doesn't look that far ahead.

The issue on Friday is that there will be extremely rapid warming of snow that is still upside-down slab, hence already unstable and has not yet settled. I saw this last year. Investigation of the slide I saw revealed that it did not run on the old bed surface. It ran within the new snow. Friday's dicey!

[Doremite]

Lacman.

Very informative. Thank you. This helps my Saturday planning. Been trying to get into the chutes over in the Great Gulf for the last couple of years and for various reasons it remains elusive. Plan for Saturday was to ski Airplane the skin up to the summit to ski the east snowfields for a bit. Based on the above, sounds like if we ski Airplane one at a time, and get to a safe zone before skier #2 drops in it might still be skiable. ...but then again, risk still seems pretty prevalent. Now wondering if its worth the mission (from boston) to ski glop in the snowfields :confused: Someone chime in if the airplane should probably passed by and left for yet another weekend/season :mad: If I make it up will certainly make my own assessment but any additional info on that aspect is welcome.

[lacman]

Sorry to make you groggy. You've got some snow moving in tomorrow, eh? 6-12 by Sat ain't so bad. Hope it doesn't lock up until after the flakes start falling. Sounds like springtime in Utah! Avalanches at 6:30 w/o new snow. Damn.

Winds on Washington are topping 113 this evening, so I would expect the summit cone to be scoured clean or getting packed into very hard slab. I suspect there might be some good places here and there, though.

ya, good info. needed a nap after reading it, tired eyes ya know. my host for the 9 days that i'm in the wasatch is bruce trempers 2nd in command and a long time touring partner of mine. we caught the early tram with snow safety/patrol this morning long b4 the lifts open to the public. there were like 6 of us on the tram and the hot topic of the morning was a natural avalanche that pulled out of superior at 6:30 pm! the day b4. now the sun had long since left superior at that time and all it took was a day of rapid warming with a chunk of cornice dropping onto a late day water saturated slope to rip out a big one. after our tour which started with helping the bird patrol open some of the bc access gates which gave craig and i an early jump on things to "work" different aspects to satiate our sliding pleasures, we drove up the road towards alta to check out the slide which was impressive. on our way down canyon the y couloir was again, like yesterday, pouring it's lava to an ever growing debris apron. the "y" looks like a$$ at this point for anyone that is wondering. temps are gonna start dropping here tomorrow to lock things up for the snow that will fall from here on in.

so ya, wet activity, about as tricky as it gets. i would be extra concerned with the warm nights to come. tomorrow early could be the ticket in many overlooked places up high. tucks? scares me to think about it.

rog

[samthaman]

Disagree on a couple points:

1) "Warm wet ones" are not wholly unpredictable, we have a classic recipe for them shaping up. We will see much more rapid extreme warming than on the day last year when I sat there and witnessed a natural warmth triggered slide come down
2) You seem to think people are the most likely triggers for tommorrow. I think natural sluffs to small Class 1 slabs will be extremely likely in the bowl on Friday! Saturday/Sunday is another story and my crystal ball doesn't look that far ahead.

The issue on Friday is that there will be extremely rapid warming of snow that is still upside-down slab, hence already unstable and has not yet settled. I saw this last year. Investigation of the slide I saw revealed that it did not run on the old bed surface. It ran within the new snow. Friday's dicey!

I agree, I actually sat down and wrote out all of what i was thinking about for tomorrow as well and emailed it to gpetrics. I think that early tomorrow on lower angle stuff up high will be amazing considering the time of year. I'm not going near the steeps at all though. (if i owned a light rope though, tomorrow would be a great day to practice ski cuts...)

[yuckster]

I agree, I actually sat down and wrote out all of what i was thinking about for tomorrow as well and emailed it to gpetrics. I think that early tomorrow on lower angle stuff up high will be amazing considering the time of year. I'm not going near the steeps at all though. (if i owned a light rope though, tomorrow would be a great day to practice ski cuts...)

I like how you think. If I had the day off tomorrow I'd be up there with ya!

[samthaman]

this is what i sent to greg. And was written regarding our proposed tour on the snowfields tomorrow. its very rough, but its what was kicking around in my head. I'd appreciate input, I'm trying to get as much practice as possible with my own basic forecasting.

Alright here is what I've come up with. (some is obvious, but bear with me).

I think the hazard will be non existent on the approach up the cog and all the way to the summit, the wind will have moved the hazard to the E side.

Based on the wind direction and strength during the storm it will be deepest on the E snowfields that drop away from directly below the summit. The safest option will be heading due south from the summit to the bigelow lawn, it is the lowest angle (~20degrees), and will have gotten partially wind effected early in the storm by the west wind, which will have removed some of the snow, hopefully including the lighter weak layer from early in the storm that will be a concern elsewhere. Heading further north along the east snowfields, the best skiing will probably drop SE right off the summit, and will be the safest "good skiing" option as I see it. Further north the steepness of the slope gets into the 35 degree range and becomes a concern, especially because the steeper slope means that there is probably more settlement there from snow suddenly decelerating after whipping over the ridge above.

Higher summits forecast had the winds at 50-60mph early tomorrow lessening to 25-40 by the late afternoon - and thats definitely a concern as it will lead to discomfort, rushed judgements, and increased loading on the snowfields, though loading will decrease as the temp bakes the snow and decreases transport-ability. This wind forecast is confusing though, because the NWS puts the winds at 12-15 all day on the summit. The even bigger concern though will be the rapidly rising temperatures that are expected to reach 45 degrees by mid day (both forecasts agree). It'll be ****ty to ski, but more importantly will greatly stress the snowpack leading to wet slides in the top layer, small fractures, and sloughing on steeper terrain.

Warning signs to look for tomorrow:

30 + degree slopes
Strong over weak layers
Rapid warming
lack of bonding to old snow - mostly a concern on steeper terrain earlier in the day.
wumphing.
Pockets of wind loading in undulating terrain.
random blown in spots on the upper ammo during the exit.

Ideal conditions:
wind destroyed or scoured the lower light snow and only deposited a cohesive thick top layer that is bonding well to the warmer isothermic spring snowpack below it.

let me know what you think please

[lacman]

Disagree on a couple points:

1) "Warm wet ones" are not wholly unpredictable, we have a classic recipe for them shaping up. We will see much more rapid extreme warming than on the day last year when I sat there and witnessed a natural warmth triggered slide come down
You're right, they're not entirely unpredictable. But it's definitely different than a typical winter snowpack. Mostly in that stability tests are useless for helping you determine how much risk you want to take on. The unpredictable part comes in when you try to say when enough (warming) is enough.
2) You seem to think people are the most likely triggers for tommorrow. I think natural sluffs to small Class 1 slabs will be extremely likely in the bowl on Friday! Saturday/Sunday is another story and my crystal ball doesn't look that far ahead.
I do think people are the most likely triggers of avalanches that might bring me harm. Small sluffs don't worry me as much as slabs. I'm not familiar with the meaning of "Class 1", but regardless, it's way worse to get tagged by a natural slide from the headwall than a small slab out of the top of Lobster Claw (not saying I'd want that, either). I've seen people forget their common sense at the trailhead far too many times. That's the main reason why I'm worried more about others than I am about myself.

The issue on Friday is that there will be extremely rapid warming of snow that is still upside-down slab, hence already unstable and has not yet settled. I saw this last year. Investigation of the slide I saw revealed that it did not run on the old bed surface. It ran within the new snow. Friday's dicey!
Agreed, Friday's dicey. The big question is whether problem number one is the rapid warming or the number of people out there. Friday's tend to be busy days up there, particularly when the forecast is as good as it is... Can I raise one hand for each?

And thanks for the comments. This is exactly the type of thoughtful response I hoped to see!

[lacman]

this is what i sent to greg...

let me know what you think please

I think you're reasoning is sound. One additional piece of info to consider: the summit winds have been blowing steadily around 100+mph for 5 hours now. My gut's telling me the summit cone will be solid with hardpack windslab on the east side and scoured other aspects. this is a plus provides stability to all aspects, and the warming up will just make it better skiing:D

Also, we can add another 0.82" liquid equivalent since the 7am snow total was published. With temps in the low 20's maybe that's another 10" of snow? 19-20 total??? Gotta keep in mind the morning advisory said only 1.6" at HoJos compared to 9.5 at the Obs.

[samthaman]

I think you're reasoning is sound. One additional piece of info to consider: the summit winds have been blowing steadily around 100+mph for 5 hours now. My gut's telling me the summit cone will be solid with hardpack windslab on the east side and scoured other aspects. this is a plus provides stability to all aspects, and the warming up will just make it better skiing:D

Also, we can add another 0.82" liquid equivalent since the 7am snow total was published. With temps in the low 20's maybe that's another 10" of snow? 19-20 total??? Gotta keep in mind the morning advisory said only 1.6" at HoJos compared to 9.5 at the Obs.

I agree, i'm curious to see just what effect sustained winds like that have on the snowpack up high. its part of the motivation for this tour. I'm hoping the cone provided some shelter and the E side was the deposition zone, but with winds like that, the deposition area could easily be the woods on teh E side of the mountain.

I'll report back on what we find.

Austin, you still going up tomorrow? Give greg a call tomorrow AM (after 430), if you want to meet up. I wouldn't want you up there solo.

[yuckster]

Warning signs to look for tomorrow:

30 + degree slopes
Strong over weak layers
Rapid warming
lack of bonding to old snow - mostly a concern on steeper terrain earlier in the day.
wumphing.
Pockets of wind loading in undulating terrain.
random blown in spots on the upper ammo during the exit.

Bonding might be ok tomorrow: the summit hourly observations showed snow beginning with summit temps at exactly 32F on low South winds after which the temperatures started dropping. (So I guess at ravine level, the temperatures may have been a bit warmer and still above freezing, with rain falling transitioning to snow below the rim)

Just a data point... spatial variability and wind affecting the bonding would still be a concern, as would the initial layer of unconsolidated snow forming a failure point.

[icelanticskier]

You've got some snow moving in tomorrow, eh? 6-12 by Sat ain't so bad. Hope it doesn't lock up until after the flakes start falling.


ya, just enough cushion for the pushin and with a virtually empty wasatch plus amazing closed ski area options, it won't $uck. should be cooling gradually which will be a help.

and to sam, plan sounds nice. easties with early pre-cook buff, or hard pack softening wait around. could be pretty darn pleasant really. if exiting a.r. proper, i'd be REALLY careful of hidden treasures, undermining, low melt out. maybe going right back down the tracks after a good day up high would be a not too greedy zero risk finish to a fabulicious day.

rog

[RR]

Bigs? I can see that. Maybe wind groomed corn above Ammo too.

What came to my mind was turn farms on the Northern edges of the Northeast facing snowfields on Ball and Nelson. Each S-line marching a little deeper toward the South. Might be 5 or 6 sets before sluffs get big or just flat out release the slabs South ofthe skier/rider, as pack-cohesion to the skiers's/rider's North will be reduced due to the previous tracks.

Tight farming would work. spread it out too much and it could be costly.

Take care!

PS:
This may delay Auto Road opening day, this could be the source of the mother of all drifts in that stretch that runs between the Nelson Crag Trail and the Wamstuua (between the 5 and 6 mileposts).

[DSM]

I'm dizzy from all this most informative back and forth. As much as I would love to be up there tomorrow to see the effects of this late season storm, will have to pass so I look forward to a trip report from those able to get up there. :snowdream:

[djming]

PS:This may delay Auto Road opening day, this could be the source of the mother of all drifts in that stretch that runs between the Nelson Crag Trail and the Wamstuua (between the 5 and 6 mileposts).

Nonsense - we've all got shovels! A concentrated T4T dig out session:)
This would of course have to been before slackfest so as to keep the "slack" for the actual day;)

[yuckster]

I do think people are the most likely triggers of avalanches that might bring me harm. Small sluffs don't worry me as much as slabs. I'm not familiar with the meaning of "Class 1", but regardless, it's way worse to get tagged by a natural slide from the headwall than a small slab out of the top of Lobster Claw (not saying I'd want that, either). I've seen people forget their common sense at the trailhead far too many times. That's the main reason why I'm worried more about others than I am about myself.

Small class 1 slide = big enough to knock you off your feet, strain you through trees over rocks and take you for a big traumatic ride, and maybe bury you if you happen to land in a terrain trap.

Don't get me wrong btw, your whole post was well reasoned, and thanks for posting such an informative treatise. Just had to add a couple points.

This little blurb (below) has been on CNFAIC's advisory today. Does it apply just as well here? You decide. At least most of our old snow has already gone isothermal.

Discussion
Another human triggered avalanche was reported yesterday from the north side of Tincan. Very large propagation was reported. The avalanches that are happening right now have been propagating very wide and running pretty far. Large natural avalanches are STILL happening as well. Generally speaking, our snowpack is NOT very stable right now. It has been active for a couple weeks and we have not even seen the Spring Thaw yet. Late April and early May is usually the time when the temps stay above freezing for several days even at night. Some old-timers talk about how avalanches really start ripping out after 48-72 hours of sustained above freezing temps. [emphasis mine] The sun can also get intense really fast. If you find yourself in the mountains and you see the sun sluffing snow off rocks, then you can expect larger avalanches withing hours or minutes. Heavy rain will also rip out a lot of avalanches, but most people will not venture too far into the mountains if that is how the Spring Thaw presents itself.

[samthaman]

Greg austin and i went up today. if the winds had died down, the E. snowfields would have been nice, but the 70mph winds whipping over them made us less than enthusiastic, so we decided to skip them. On the plus side, the steeper start zones got so hammered that I don't think that any of that weak early storm snow was deposited high up. However a crapload of thick knife hard wind slab was, sometimes 6+feet deep. I would have liked to dig a pit, but that would have involved dropping into one of the gullies in GG. GG did have some 4-5 foot cornices in places, and we dropped a few smaller ones (too small to really represent much) and didn't get anything at all to go, in fact they barely even marked the really hard wind slab in the gully itself. Personally I thought it was so hard, and well bonded up top that it would probably be fine to ski, but that as you got through it or approached the edges of blown in areas, you'd potentially expose yourself to a big heavy avalanche. Booting up would be rolling the dice as well. We decided not to ski it, but some questionable looking characters may have.

I'd personally stay away for a while, especially as this sorts itself out, and especially at the bottom of the ravines where it transitions to less steep terrain, as there might be some weak layers down there where it wasn't seeing the full strength of the wind. booting back out would be a big concern too. (I'm wiring this thinking especially of GG. Tux and HR are easier entrances and exits)

I'm no expert though, and I'm writing this all out just to sort of help think it through on my end, and get my thought process critiqued.

[skimtwashington]

"Greg austin and i went up today. if the winds had died down, the E. snowfields would have been nice, but the 70mph winds whipping over them made us less than enthusiastic....GG...We decided not to ski it...."

So what did you ski? Anything? Nothing?

Tuckerman. org weekend update implies still some avalanche potential(medium-'..not considerable range..") in some areas for Saturday.

Almost too mushy, too warm conditions.....

[drewvw]

was wondering that too...what did you actually ski.

Thanks for the info sam, very helpful...

[mattlucas]

What areas outside of the bowl might be safer today? Most of the aspects that we discuss are too steep to be considered safe with my avy knowledge and partner.

Plus, I am worried that the large amount of people still expected to be up there in addition to the instability would prevent me from taking a single risky run down even left gully.

Any suggestions?

[mattlucas]

besides aborting.

[samthaman]

we just skied right back down the cog. even skied a few inches of pow along the way.

[yuckster]

GG did have some 4-5 foot cornices in places...really hard wind slab in the gully itself.

Did you look at Pipeline specifically? I'd think Pipeline would be typically more sheltered.

[samthaman]

saw the top from the distance, but other than that, no. I was on the fence about weather to be more worried about windslab that went to the old snow, as in airplane, or the more sheltered gullies that might have preserved their initial lighter layer better and thus had a layer that was more likely to fail.

i also forgot to mention earlier that we only really noticed wind effects form teh NW winds on our tour. everything was loaded to the SE

[RR]

saw the top from the distance, but other than that, no. I was on the fence about weather to be more worried about windslab that went to the old snow, as in airplane, or the more sheltered gullies that might have preserved their initial lighter layer better and thus had a layer that was more likely to fail.

i also forgot to mention earlier that we only really noticed wind effects form teh NW winds on our tour. everything was loaded to the SEMost reputable thinking!

[jshefftz]

Saw some interesting variability over these past three days in the Northern Presidentials:

Friday evening, Lowe's Path was nasty as always, although the new snow helped considerably. So much in fact, that I didn't even bother with crampons. Got to Gray Knob just in time not to need a headlamp.

Saturday morning, with a casual start time, hiked and skinned (with more of the latter for a change) to Castle Ravine, which from a distance seemed to be all old snow. Kept skinning up to start at the top of a snowfield, then dropped into South Sister, which was 100% old snow, but softening up (thank you casual start time) and hence quite nice. Middle Sister seemed discontinuous, as had North Sister from a distance, but up close it was okay. The top had some new snow, but that was easily avoided.

Headed over to Jefferson, hiked to near the summit, then ski down to Edmands Col and switched partners to ski Central Gully. All new snow, but no signs up instability. Skinned up ZigZag Gully back to Edmands Col. Sun had set, but not firming up, so we took another run. Similar conditions to Central Gully.

Hiked and skinned up to Adams then skied down the snowfields back to the hut. A mix of conditions on that descent.

This morning we skinned up Adams then skied King Ravine, which was exactly the mix of old snow and new snow that is both ideal for skiing quality and stability. (The mix of condition on the hike out was anything but ideal though...)

[mooseleg]

The forecast on Thursday night scared us out of a planned trip to GoS and the Bowl this weekend, and we decided to go check out King, figuring that all the loading to the SE wouldn't really be much of a factor on that side of the range.

Such an amazing and remote area, and way more of a slog to get up and back out then we had anticipated. After seeing the video of the slide at Tucks I feel vindicated on all the extra work we had to put in to make some turns this past weekend. We hit some real manky new stuff on the snowfields off Sam Adams and skied the line to skiers left careful to avoid the crack up top and the open waterfalls that were opening up all over.