April 11th Advice Needed

[MAXIMUS]

We are targeting April 11th. Some people say that is too early, some say it is too late. I feel it is just right. Is this year different? The last time I went was 20+ years ago. This time I'm taking my 15 year old son.

Is it futile to hope for the Sherburne trail to be open on that day? Might it be open partway down? :skicool:

[gpetrics]

This is a super tough question, and pretty much can only be answered as accurately as the weather can be forecasted for all dates from now up to and including april 11th.

if it stays like this (coldish and no snow), and you happen to get a warm day, i think you'll have no problem having a good day in the ravine, and then skiing the sherburne back out to the car.

if it stays like this and you get a cold day, expect it to be too icy in the ravine unless you have technical equipment, and expect the sherby to be icy

if it is warm between now and then the ravine will be great, but the sherby will most likely be melted out

if it is cold and snowy between now and then the ravine will be too dangerous due to avalanche concerns, but the sherby should be great.

keep an eye on the weather... if things stay more or less the same i think you can expect the sherby open to the bottom... if it happens to snow hard just before your trip, you probably will be precluded from entering the ravine unless you understand the risks, how to mitigate them, and accept the possibility of the consequences.

[RR]

Word!
Inego Montoya could not have summed it up any better or more briefly. Reps!

Maximus, try to put some flexibility into your planning. It's tough, for sure...Easter is the 12th and that's not a ski day for many and the Inferno is the following Week End, not a deal killer, but there will be a huge crowd!

Having a back-up date is a good idea. Best of Luck!

[DSM]

To highlight the uncertainty of this time of year, and the variable conditions, here is a synopsis of the last 4 yrs:

April 30, 2005 - Foggy, light sleet and snow. Temps were hovering around freezing. Snow was frozen granular, with some packed powder at top of Hillmans. Sherburne basically closed, you could ski about 1/4 way down, but involved dodging mud and grass
http://i272.photobucket.com/albums/jj172/DSM3/Tuckerman%20over%20yrs/Untitled-7.jpg

April 15, 2006
Variable cloudy, corn snow, Sherburne skiiable half-way down
http://i272.photobucket.com/albums/jj172/DSM3/Tuckerman%20over%20yrs/bowl.jpg

April 15, 2007
High Avalanche danger, light snow and fog- Bowl was deserted. There were two minor avalanches the day before that involved small injuries. Sherburne skialbe to Pinkham, with decent spring snow and bumps.
http://i272.photobucket.com/albums/jj172/DSM3/Tuckerman%20over%20yrs/100_5465JPG.jpg

April 17, 2008
Bluebird day, Good spring skiing conditions in bowl and up to base of summit dome. Sherburne good top to bottom, some grass starting to show but enough snow potential to last into May
http://i272.photobucket.com/albums/jj172/DSM3/Tuckerman%20over%20yrs/IMG_0015.jpg

This year I'm targeting either April 17-18, or 25-25. Since I'm essentially a one-trip a yr tuck-man, I finally learned that its best to have a few weekends in mind, then go for the first shot if the weather is good, or wait for Plan B. I am guessing that by then, based on historical data, there will still be plenty of snow in the bowl, the little headwall will be closed, and the Sherburne will be partially skiable, either half or quarter way down. One other thing I've learned is that it is always an amazing experience, no matter the weather. :happyhiker:

[MAXIMUS]

Thanks for the advice folks. We definitely have a "rain date" - April 25. We may consider skiing Easter day if April 11 is no good.

I can't wait. I've been training with my pack loaded hiking the hills around my house.