Tux fracture line this morning

[chickwhorips]

I played with the color balance a bit, so hopefully this shows up in the photo as well as it does by naked eye from Wildcat...

http://i161.photobucket.com/albums/t229/joarch/Tuxfractureline.jpg

[rockhead]

that looks HUGE

[Rob A]

that looks HUGE

id say so :eek:


http://www.tuckerman.org/photos/tucks/images/2009-02-24%20Ripped%20out%20multiple%20layers%20of%20hard% 20slab.jpg (http://www.tuckerman.org/photos/tucks/)

[jumpturn]

notice how the 38º blows out regularly...

[NtrentT]

That sucker is huge.

Quite humbling isn't !

Has anyone mentioned how far the debit field spread?

[pulverschwein]

Has anyone mentioned how far the debit field spread?
Just "far beyond where they have run to so far this season." That sucker connects from close to left, across chute, almost to lunch rocks. Observer comments should be interesting tomorrow.

8'-6" crown sez I :eek:

Please watch it up there tomorrow, rog n co.

[M@]

Looks like 10 feet to me.

M@

[jumpturn]

Please watch it up there tomorrow, rog n co.
They're headed straight for the 38º, so no need for beacons and shovels.... http://images.absolutepunk.net/images/smilies/lnr%20(6).gif

Maybe the regional backcountry industry should require their employees to always carry avi gear when traveling in avalanche country. After a number of deaths, businesses in La Grave require this so there will be some chance of quick rescue when someone else gets in trouble.
http://images.absolutepunk.net/images/smilies/Standard/idea.gif

[Cat in January]

Well this last storm with the snow and the wind certainly was ideal for loading. I wonder what it sounded like.

[pulverschwein]

Looks like 10 feet to me.

M@

http://i125.photobucket.com/albums/p64/pulverschwein/crown.jpg
Anybody know who Jeff is and about how tall he stands? I sure don't, but I'm sticking with my 8.5' guesstimate based on this photo. Amazing pics from 2 days ago on .org for anybody who hasn't looked.

[NtrentT]

Damn. :eek:

[jumpturn]

He is 6’ 2". So, we're looking at an 8' crown.

[yuckster]

Nice evidence of multiple layers on the left. Too bad I'm probably not going to have time to get up and check this out.

[ILOVE2SKI]

I don't think you'd catch me stading under that...

[skituxnoob]

I don't think you'd catch me stading under that...

judging by the number of times he stopped to check out the snow just below the fracture i'd say it was safe.

[M@]

Jeff: 6'2" : 23 pixels

3.2173913 inches/pixel

Crown : 34 pixels

Calculated to 109.4 inches or 9'1"

M@

[PwdrHound]

That is amazing! I wish I could get up there to see it!!!1

God, I don't care what they say, Avy is always somewhat of an unknown.....agree or disagree? I mean, who would have predicted that an avalanche of this size would have broken off like this naturally?

I just got back from the Alps where the avy danger is so obvious, almost apparent and wide-spread. I mean, you can't miss the danger, you can't ignore it.....it's always there....it keeps you humble. Here on the east coast of North America, Avy is a bit more abstract, I think! Despite Mt. Washington probably being the most monitored and forecasted avalanche area in the World. I'm not sure if that is true or not but, typically, avalanche centers forecast for very broad areas. In New Hampshire we have a new report everyday for a relatively small area.

-Rich

[yuckster]

Jeff: 6'2" : 23 pixels

3.2173913 inches/pixel

Crown : 34 pixels

Calculated to 109.4 inches or 9'1"

M@

So it's 1.48 Jeffs.

[RR]

So it's 1.48 Jeffs.Or 1.63 Smoots + an Ear.
;)

[yuckster]

Exactly!

[M@]

Google Conversion (http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&rlz=1C1CHMB_enUS291US304&q=109.4+inches+%3D+%3F+smoots&btnG=Search) says 1.63 Smoots too.

M@

[Telemark]

I mean, who would have predicted that an avalanche of this size would have broken off like this naturally?
The snow rangers, and anyone who read their avalanche forecast. :)

[PwdrHound]

The snow rangers, and anyone who read their avalanche forecast. :)


Hmmmmmmm.......I was waiting for such a response. I just don't know enough at this point....I am infatuated with snow. We have so much knowledge relating to the miracle of snow and it's behavior but, I'm not so sure avalanche forecasting is yet an exact science. It may be my ignorance but, I think that wild cards are inherent to snow safety. There are just too many variables. So many that it goes beyond, "similar angles and aspects". I'm not arguing with the strict, text book observations. Some of which I was happy to easily recognize while in Switzerland but, until I learn more, I consider Avalanche to be as unpredictable as it is predictable, considering all possible conditions, known and unknown, at the time you are making your decisions.

I was looking forward to Avy II at Whiteface in a couple of weeks. Unfortunately, I forgot to mail in my registration before leaving for Switzerland and the course is now filled. So bummed :(

[yuckster]

The original question was, "who could have predicted that it would go this big" (big meaning 1.48 Jeffs, to be specific.)

At Tuckermans, when you've had just 2 or 3 midsize snow events without an intervening serious rain event that would create a bomber crust, you've probably got enough snow that you can say "if it slides, it could slide BIG."

Rain pushes the reset button. After that happens, if there is no rain, it just piles up and piles up until it slides big in a climax avalanche.

We had something likes 40 inches over 2 weeks... that's enough.

Personally I usually shoot for the days when it's just a few inches on top of the most recent rain crust, for exactly that reason. An inch or three of actual snowfall is enough to create 2 or 3 feet of windslab under the Lip at Tucks. The wind can be a huge, really big deal.

If there is more than a few inches of new at Tux, I figure the tree skiing is going to be good elsewhere, so I go tree skiing somewhere else.. generally speaking.