Last Day of Snow

[P-HUG]

With all the sudden losses I'm starting the last day of visible snow thread:

My guestimation: 7/17

[NtrentT]

July 22nd

[RR]

August 3rd :D

[Teledancer]

I'll go with
7/23
Last skiable
7/14 :cry:
bet there'll still be a chunkie in the bowl

[bobpratl]

July 26:cry:

[LPNH]

Aug. 7th

[M@]

I'm hoping it'll snow before it's all gone - but that the day that there will be no trace of snow in the ravine will be Oct 8th.

M@

[boardman]

It's in the 70's in the Ravine today, and supposed to be warm all week. I suspect we won't see visible snow past the end of this month. I'll go with July 29.

[JBHeadParrot]

My 2 cents say July 28th...

[ILOVE2SKI]

August 11th.

[Rider.Steve]

Last visible snow 31 July.

And the last skier's ass will be purple until 14 August.

[Tua Guy]

Last visible snow 31 July.

And the last skier's ass will be purple until 14 August. Hope you're right, except, of course, for the purple ass part. I like a lot of Prince's stuff, but, from experience, I know I don't look good in purple. Here's hoping for 8-1. See you out there.

[PWDR8S]

I look into my crystal ball and I see August.... August.... uhhhhhhh.... August... mid August.... getting clearer now....

August 16th!

And this is for the last skiable snow! Not last visible snow or other remnants.
It happens to be on a weekend day and I think I'll give it a go. :cool:



Last visible snow? I'ld venture to say it shall be September... lemme concentrate..... Mmmmmmmm.... Ommmmmm.... Ommmmmm..... tuning in now...... Hmmmm... a little vague.... I'm getting September 29-30th for last visible snow to vanish.

[Tua Guy]

[QUOTE=PWDR8S;114196]I look into my crystal ball and I see August.... August.... uhhhhhhh.... August... mid August.... getting clearer now....

August 16th!

And this is for the last skiable snow! Not last visible snow or other remnants.
It happens to be on a weekend day and I think I'll give it a go. :cool:



QUOTE] If it's real, then the 16th it is . You and Harken got me hooked on this site, so wouldn't miss last turns with you for this year. If it's real, guaranteed there'll be a posse. See you out there.;)

[boardman]

[QUOTE=PWDR8S;114196]I look into my crystal ball and I see August.... August.... uhhhhhhh.... August... mid August.... getting clearer now....

August 16th!

And this is for the last skiable snow! Not last visible snow or other remnants.
It happens to be on a weekend day and I think I'll give it a go. :cool:



QUOTE] If it's real, then the 16th it is . You and Harken got me hooked on this site, so wouldn't miss last turns with you for this year. If it's real, guaranteed there'll be a posse. See you out there.;)


good luck, fellas, 'cuz there's barely anything visible right now, and temps are forecasted to go pretty high through the rest of the week. I don't think the snow, visible or otherwise, is going to make it past this Sunday.

[RR]

cropped from high res:
http://www.techsourceconsultants.com/coppermine/albums/userpics/10040/normal_Jul15th946AM.JPG

[PWDR8S]

[quote=Tua Guy;114201]


good luck, fellas, 'cuz there's barely anything visible right now, and temps are forecasted to go pretty high through the rest of the week. I don't think the snow, visible or otherwise, is going to make it past this Sunday.

That's the beauty of late sliding in TUX...... Often it disappears from sight but there is still some there! Over the past years, I've had peep telling me I'm crazy to carry planks up because THEY could not see any snow... primarily from Lions Head or the web cam where in reality there was enough to make a few insane turns. :D

If it's out of camera sight, it doesn't mean it's completely gone. I've proven that a couple dozen times already... at least to myself. :cool:

[Tua Guy]

Thanks to RR for the Hi Rez webcam shot. As suspicioned, looks like RG is the girl you take home at the end of the night. Looks like the naysayers for Aug. may be right, but optimist that I am I'll make 2 points: this place makes its own weather, and, I'll take the bird in the hand, and keep an eye on the one in the bush. I met 8's and others on a day when "there isn't any snow", so I'm down with his post. Concerns: how steep is the double fall line, not much time for a self arrest when the field is narrow, (been there, done that, don't want to do it again [thanks, teledancer]), undermining, and last, if I do it, I'll need new linens for the couch when I tell her I'm going again. All things considered, maybe Sunday. Need more beta.

[MadPatSki]

Concerns: how steep is the double fall line, not much time for a self arrest when the field is narrow, (been there, done that, don't want to do it again [thanks, teledancer]), undermining, and last, if I do it, I'll need new linens for the couch when I tell her I'm going again.
That's the spirit!!! :eek::D

Definitely don't f up territory now. Doable for about a more or less safe 20 vertical meter in Right. I'm personally making my own August turns plans, however it probably won't be Tux.

[RR]

Update...full pic...
http://www.techsourceconsultants.com/coppermine/albums/userpics/10040/TuxWebCamJul16.JPG

[NtrentT]

I predicted 22nd of July, but by the looks of it today, I bet a few days longer.

[RR]

I predicted 22nd of July....Neener, Neener, Neener!
....but by the looks of it today, I bet a few days longer.If you go ski it, you ought to be given a fresh opportunity to predict :D

[PWDR8S]

Neener, Neener, Neener!
If you go ski it, you ought to be given a fresh opportunity to predict :D

I agree with that idea. Hands on... should I say "feet on" assessment can make a huge difference in predicting.

[MadPatSki]

I agree with that idea. Hands on... should I say "feet on" assessment can make a huge difference in predicting.

If you want "ski on", you better go now cuz time and snow are melting away. :eek:

[RR]

Hi res, July 17..about 9AM:
http://www.techsourceconsultants.com/coppermine/albums/userpics/10040/hiResJul17.JPG

[P-HUG]

Hi res, July 17..about 9AM:
http://www.techsourceconsultants.com/coppermine/albums/userpics/10040/hiResJul17.JPG

Looks like I'm out

[DSM]

August 7

[MadPatSki]

After the rain and the clouds, a dot of snow seems to remain.

Don't think it will be visible for much longer?

So who did the last turns and when?

[Teledancer]

I may do an Inspection tour this wknd.... but doubt I'll bring any gear
fear its over :(
see ya when the snow flys! :D

[MadPatSki]

fear its over :(

It's never over, the ski season just moves elsewhere. :D

[PWDR8S]

Wow... that rain over the last few days made a serious dent in the remaining snow! :cry:

Looks like I may have missed the last trax window... oh well.
Teledancer.... give us a detail beta on what's left if you do go up there. I have a couple Beer Fests down here to attend.

[Rider.Steve]

Anyone have access to the zoom cam? Looks like my guess of 7/31 was a couple days late.

[bobpratl]

I guessed July 26 on July 3

[PWDR8S]

Haven't heard any definitive answers to this yet. I may have to go up there and camp and find out for meself! (With skis of course!... you know... just in case there is still enough left.)

[psia-instrctr]

Anyone have access to the zoom cam? Looks like my guess of 7/31 was a couple days late.

I have direct access to control the camera, but we don't archive any zoomed images.

One of the observers from the other shift hiked up through the ravine today and said it's all gone.The last report I had before today was from last Saturday and there was still something left then.

Here's the standard Ravine cam view from last Friday the 25th...you can still see something under the Sluice and under the Chute:

http://www.bmclark.org/accuwx_blog/20080725_ravines.jpg

And here is a picture of one of the interns here at the Observatory on her hike up on the 26th for Seek the Peak(our annual hike-a-thon fundraiser):

http://www.bmclark.org/accuwx_blog/natalie_tucks.jpg

So sometime between the 26th and today is when the last bit melted out.

I had guessed August 3rd for the last snow melted out. Guess it didn't quite make it. Just think though, only another couple months before it starts filling up again for another season! :skicool:

[PWDR8S]

:cry::cry::cry::cry::cry::cry:
It's all gawnnnnnnnnn! :cry:

Well.... at least I don't have to carry my skis, etc up anymore! Now I can carry more BEER up to camp! :D :beermug::D

Somehow it doesn't surprise me considering how much it rained up there this week.... whew! Oh well, ç'est la vie! http://www.techsourceconsultants.com/coppermine/albums/userpics/10020/glasses.gif

But wait! What qualifies as last turns on the snow? Having enough snow to connect 2 turns? From the looks of that last pic with the intern, those cubes may still be there although greatly reduced in size. Hmmmmmmmmmm.........

[Rider.Steve]

Visible snow on 7/26, invisible snow on 8/1.

Last snow men standing:


JBheadparrot 7/28
Boardman 7/29
R.S. 7/31


Unless more information comes to the forum, the prize will be split three ways.

[RR]

Sadly, I picked Aug 3 as well...WAIT!....

What the hell am I sad about...the snow lasted almost to August! That's way cool!

Might as well tune my skis now :D

[Rider.Steve]

Might as well tune my skis now :D

I need to detune my skis. :)

[PWDR8S]

I need to detune my skis. :)

I need to tune in and drop out. Peace out man!

[psia-instrctr]

What the hell am I sad about...the snow lasted almost to August!


Just think, if April(6.4 degrees above normal) and June(3.2 degrees above normal) hadn't been so warm, there would probably still be some skiing left!

[icelanticskier]

Just think, if April(6.4 degrees above normal) and June(3.2 degrees above normal) hadn't been so warm, there would probably still be some skiing left!

ya, and if the summit hadn't gotten like 80 or 90 inches below average this winter think of how much snow there could've been!

rog

[psia-instrctr]

ya, and if the summit hadn't gotten like 80 or 90 inches below average this winter think of how much snow there could've been!

Well, naturally that is always the case. I simply meant with the amount of snow we got for the season, it had the potential to last a lot longer with temperatures even just a little closer to average.

The exact deficit of snow for the year was 75.5 inches for the summit. However, in my opinion, there is no way the Ravine or the East Snowfields or any of the runs on the moutain would look like they did this spring after a year that far below average. Something fishy happened this past winter. Maybe the level in the atmosphere that the snow was developing was slightly below the summit or maybe the wind direction during the storms was not allowing us to accurately measure the snow (not that it is ever entirely accurate). I dunno, just a couple of my hypotheses...haven't had a chance to research them yet.

[RR]

The precip origin level idea is very interesting. I can recall hiking out of rain @ Pinkham into clear skies a few times. Once with M@ and Rainman. When we were done with our Bluebird Day in the Ravine we had to descend into the clouds again to get back to Pinkham.

If it happens for rain, why not for snow? :D

[Cat in January]

I was quite suprised to read that it was a below average snowfall year for the summit. I would have guessed above average, but I am not basing that on summit experiences.

[PWDR8S]

It's the ravine gnomes at work there! They moved the snow all around and added to the bowl whereas the summit got much less.... That HAS to be the only reasonable explanation left! :p :D :cool:

[Rider.Steve]

P8's argument has merit. As many know firsthand, the East Summit Snowfield (as well as Tux and GG)were very good this spring. Maybe all that snow missing from the true summit somehow magically fell elsewhere.

In any case, I'm really living it up with my prize from the Last Snow Contest.

[TuaGuy]

The exact deficit of snow for the year was 75.5 inches for the summit. However, in my opinion, there is no way the Ravine or the East Snowfields or any of the runs on the moutain would look like they did this spring after a year that far below average. Something fishy happened this past winter. Maybe the level in the atmosphere that the snow was developing was slightly below the summit or maybe the wind direction during the storms was not allowing us to accurately measure the snow (not that it is ever entirely accurate). I dunno, just a couple of my hypotheses...haven't had a chance to research them yet. I'd be very interested to know if the fishy part is wind direction/speed during and in the 24/36 hrs. after the storm. May be just my take on it, but to my memory, LG, chute and center had a lot of snow this year in relation to RG, which is usually the hands down winner for last skiable late in the season, regardless of total snowfall. I remember checking in with Pinkham in January, commenting that the Slides didn't look as full as a week or so earlier, and was told that a wind shift had lifted alot of what was on the upper slopes and shipped it west: Oakes finished very strong late this year, at least anecdotally. Maybe 8's ravine gnomes can get with the grant-writing gnomes and provide us with a snow science doctoral thesis project with MW OBS oversight reading the wind speed/direction, rate of snowfall and moisture content (deposition) in relation to what the summit is seeing, based on remote obs stations (mounted on GS gate springs, for obvious reasons) located at Right, Center, Left, HH, Slides, Oakes, and upper Monroe fan. We'll start small and add Great Gulf if the funding gets renewed. Of course, all collected beta goes through T4T filters before being released to the general public.:tucks:

[icelanticskier]

funny to compare years. gos last season was so lean that i never even bothered to go up and this year it was in epic condition. however last year sluice/rg/bowl runout was way better than this year till mid june anyway but left was nothing and the east snowfields last year/joke. one things fo sho, there's good snow cover somewhere up there every year that lasts.
rog

[PWDR8S]

Good point Tua.... I was stunned to see LG held up so late into the spring fling... Icyboy has a good point about there is always some good stuff around in any year.

I still believe the gnomes were working hard for us this year. Like...who really skis the summit? It went to the sliding areas. Wish I made more trips up there this year in light of the conditions. :rolleyes: Ah well... makes the times I did get up there all the more rewarding. :D

[TuaGuy]

I still believe the gnomes were working hard for us this year. Like...who really skis the summit? It went to the sliding areas. Wish I made more trips up there this year in light of the conditions. :rolleyes: Ah well... makes the times I did get up there all the more rewarding. :D Could you get in touch with RR, and, with your connection to the Ravine gnomes and his direct channel to Ullr, please both use your best offices for the upcoming season. Given what you see, given what you feel, given what you learn, especially in the deep of winter, it's all a reward. October cometh. See you out there.

[TuaGuy]

funny to compare years. gos last season was so lean that i never even bothered to go up and this year it was in epic condition. however last year sluice/rg/bowl runout was way better than this year till mid june anyway but left was nothing and the east snowfields last year/joke. one things fo sho, there's good snow cover somewhere up there every year that lasts.
rog I remember it the same way, right bowl much stronger than left, as usual, last year. Right on all points, at least to my experience. Still would be cool to quantify the 'how' it forms as it does. I know that starting in foliage season, we're looking at the radar and weather maps multiple times a day if things look right for snow. I remember one trip up in early November 6-7 years ago when it looked potentially good, and I said F it I'm going. Rain on 16, rain in tourist central, rain in Jackson, got to Dead Man's Curve and it started snowing. Pinkham had almost a foot and I came down the Sherbie through the weeds in 18" of fresh, just rolling off the knees on each genuflect. Yeah the water bars and the rocks didn't do the 104 Rides any good, but it goes in the books as a "just doesn't get any better than that". Any beta that gives me another day like that is good in my book. See you out there.

[icelanticskier]

I remember it the same way, right bowl much stronger than left, as usual, last year. Right on all points, at least to my experience. Still would be cool to quantify the 'how' it forms as it does. I know that starting in foliage season, we're looking at the radar and weather maps multiple times a day if things look right for snow. I remember one trip up in early November 6-7 years ago when it looked potentially good, and I said F it I'm going. Rain on 16, rain in tourist central, rain in Jackson, got to Dead Man's Curve and it started snowing. Pinkham had almost a foot and I came down the Sherbie through the weeds in 18" of fresh, just rolling off the knees on each genuflect. Yeah the water bars and the rocks didn't do the 104 Rides any good, but it goes in the books as a "just doesn't get any better than that". Any beta that gives me another day like that is good in my book. See you out there.

amen
rog